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Market Review:
Rollover
After the end of day Friday, the US Equity Futures will roll from December 2023 to March 2024 contracts. Currently the March contracts in the ES Futures are trading roughly 50 points higher than their December counterpart. Given that discrepancy there are a few numbers to consider. The first is the high of the year 4634.50. December contracts would need to be trading at 4634.50 –50, roughly 4584.00 so they do not make a new high when they open as lead Sunday night. That part seems to be front and center. The second number to consider is 4571.75, the open of the month. If we look at the negative end of the market, subtract 50 points from the month open and you will find 4522.00. If the December contract is above 4522.00, then the March contract will open as lead above the open of the month.
The Employment Situation Reports released in the morning on Dec 8 may hang a shadow over this market. Consensus expectation is for the Employment Rate to remain at 3.9%. The Participation rate is expected to move up from 62.7% to 62.8%. If the numbers show a strong economy, it could be negative for the market, as we would need to wait longer for action from the FOMC.
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