A Critical Market Sign To Watch
Just because the markets eked out another gain today, don’t get caught believing there is no limit to this rally. Many pundits have been claiming things are overbought for a while. So how do you tell when it is about to turn? Keith Harwood gave us a great clue not too long ago and the signal he warned us about just flashed red.
...Read MoreHow PCE Data Could Effect Trades This Week
Last week brought welcome news for the markets in the form of the high-stakes Fed meeting concluding with a result that was about as good as could have been hoped for. While their policy decision was largely a foregone conclusion, the FOMC delivered what investors hoped for in that their updated ‘dot plot’ and post meeting commentary still confirmed that the committee has three rate cuts penciled in for this year, staying consistent with previous predictions and messaging. This positive news was the catalyst which sprung the markets higher, leading each of the three major indices to make new all-time highs. The bullish thrust post-Fed meeting was broad-based as 9 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week in the green in addition to 79% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-Day MA and the NYSE Advance-Decline Index made a new high.
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Markets Waving This Big Red Flag
For the last 3 weeks I have been saying it is too late/ low probability trade to push the long side in the general stock market. Let me give you a concrete example of why I have been saying that. In the last 25 years we have only had two other occasions when the stock market went this long or longer, in terms of trading days, without at least a 2 percent correction. As I see the number of occurrences get smaller and smaller the last three weeks, the probability of continued strength gets smaller and smaller.
...Read MoreChart of the Day: Newmont Mining (NEM)
With gold quickly approaching $2,200, keep an eye on Newmont Mining (NEM).
At the moment, it’s consolidating at $34. But with gold on the run, we believe NEM could break significantly higher from here.
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Big Boost Creates This SPY Trade
When I look for a great trade, one of the places I turn is to SPY, or the SPDR S&P 500 trust. This heavily traded exchange traded fund tracks the S&P 500 and often creates opportunities from broader market moves.
...Read MoreA Common Move You Shouldn’t Chase
I have a great streak and then I will be patient. There is no other way to win at the trading game for me. Right now this environment is a low probability situation for me. So I don’t force anything. I just sit and wait till I see something I like and recognize. Over the long run patience pays. In the short run it’s sometimes difficult. So until the SP 500 does some mean revision I won’t be trading.
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