Ticker Reports for February 20th
Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Loaded Up on These Stocks in Q4 2024
Bridgewater Associates, founded by famed investor Ray Dalio, loaded up on shares of some big-name stocks in Q4. Bridgewater Associates recently released its Form 13F. Institutional investment managers with more than $100 million in discretionary control over 13F Securities must file this document. It provides transparency into what they own. Stocks and ETFs are two of the biggest 13F security categories.
Although Dalio isn’t running the day-to-day investment operations of Bridgewater at this point, he is still involved with the firm. He sits on its Board of Directors and mentors the company’s Chief Investment Officers. His ongoing presence shows that his principles and guidance still shape Bridgewater's investment philosophy and choices.
Robinhood: Bridgewater Betting on the Future of This Investment Platform
In Q4, Bridgewater massively increased its stake in Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), acquiring an additional 2.1 million shares. Shares of Robinhood have gone on an incredible run over the past several months. Bridgewater has likely achieved impressive returns with this investment. Since Sept. 30, Robinhood’s share price has risen by nearly 153% as of the Feb. 19 close. Excitement surrounding the company’s ability to benefit from increased interest in cryptocurrencies has been an important driver. President Trump’s notable affinity toward crypto adds to this thesis. Indeed, interest in crypto translated to success for Robinhood last quarter. Crypto trading volume, on which Robinhood earns a spread, spiked by 455%.
This was one factor that helped the firm to over double its average revenue per user from a year ago to $164. Now, the company has nearly $200 billion in assets under custody and has managed to increase its revenues by more than ten times in just 5 years. It has demonstrated a strong ability to cater to Gen Z and millennial investors. Its one-stop-shop platform, where investors can find both traditional and newer types of assets, resonates with these clients. Trillions in wealth are set to transfer to millennials and Gen Z over the next 20 years. This would be a big tailwind for Robinhood if it could keep these clients happy.
PayPal: Bridgewater Increases Stake in Online Payment Giant
In Q4, Bridgewater added over 1.1 million shares of PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL), nearly doubling its position in this name. PayPal shares haven’t had much success since the beginning of Q3, with a return of 0% as of the Feb. 19 close. This is largely due to PayPal’s recent financial results that showed some onlookers underlying weakness in the company. Shares dropped by 13% after the release. As the company is looking to grow profitably rather than at the expense of profit, markets are down on this name. It's possible Bridgewater investors are bullish on this strategy despite the fact that it does risk PayPal losing market share.
However, Bridgewater also has notable positions in other companies in the payments industry, like Visa (NYSE: V) and Global Payments (NYSE: GPN). This signals that they may be bullish on the payments space in general. With economic growth and payment digitization both being trends that will continue over time, it makes sense to like this space. Additionally, Visa, Global Payments and PayPal are strong players in different niches within payments. Visa is the leader in card networks, while PayPal dominates digital wallets and online consumer payments. Global Payments ranks fourth in the United States market share in the merchant acquiring space.
AT&T: Bridgewater May Have Picked a Side in the Big 3 Telecom Battle
Bridgewater’s position in the Big Three telecom company AT&T (NYSE: T) ballooned in Q4 2024. It added nearly 5.2 million shares. Notably, Bridgewater does not have Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) and T-Mobile US (NASDAQ: TMUS) in its top 50 holdings. Bridgewater is possibly betting on the positioning of AT&T compared to its two rivals, especially as it pertains to broadband internet.
Broadband strategy is one of the biggest differences between these firms. AT&T has the strongest commitment to fiber optics. This technology requires expensive upfront investment, but it has many advantages for customers that AT&T believes will differentiate it. The stock has returned 22% since the start of Q4, and 17% in 2025. The company was able to expand its broadband margins in 2024 as its fiber business grew. The company now has enough fiber cable laid to support 29 million locations. This makes it a leader in this space and gives it the ability to grow substantially.
A deadly mistake in my prediction…
I thought what happened 25 years ago was a once- in-a-lifetime event… but how wrong I was.
Because here we are, a quarter of a century later, almost to the exact day, and it's happening again.
Tesla: 2 Reasons to Buy, 1 Reason to Run
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a wild ride over the past few months. In the weeks following Trump’s election victory, the stock soared 130%, reaching an all-time high in December before momentum stalled. Since then, shares have fallen more than 25%, with investors taking profits and shifting to a more cautious stance.
While Tesla’s recent earnings report didn’t help sentiment, the pullback may be setting up a compelling buying opportunity. With bullish analysts calling for 45% upside, momentum swinging from the bears, and technicals improving, there are two strong reasons to buy, but also one big reason to stay on the sidelines.
Reason #1 to Buy: The Sell-Off Looks Overdone
Tesla’s January earnings report wasn’t pretty. Both headline figures missed estimates, and revenue growth was a disappointing 2% year over year. Given the stock’s massive rally in the months prior, this was enough to trigger a sharp sell-off as investors rushed to take profits.
But the market may have overreacted. Despite missing expectations, Tesla still posted record revenue, showing that demand remains strong. Additionally, much of the disappointment is now fully priced in; shares have fallen more than 25% since earnings, creating an opportunity for long-term investors who still believe in Tesla’s growth story.
Momentum also appears to be shifting back in Tesla’s favor. The RSI sits at 43 and is trending up, indicating that the stock is moving out of oversold levels. The recent downtrend could be nearing an inflection point for buyers thinking of stepping in at these levels.
Reason #2 to Buy: Analysts See Big Upside
Despite the post-earnings sell-off, analysts remain mostly optimistic. Just last week, Benchmark reaffirmed its Buy rating and issued a $475 price target. That echoed similar bullish calls from Stifel Nicolaus and Mizuho, which also reiterated their Buy ratings earlier this month.
The price targets from the latter went as high as $515, suggesting a potential 45% upside from Wednesday’s closing price.
Analysts point to Tesla’s long-term dominance in EVs and energy storage as reasons to stay bullish, even as near-term growth slows. With their sentiment remaining very much in Tesla’s favor, you can’t help but feel the recent pullback could be a great entry point before the next move higher.
1 Reason to Run: Growth Concerns Are Real
The biggest reason to avoid Tesla right now is slowing revenue growth. A 2% year-over-year increase is a far cry from the double-digit expansion investors are used to seeing. If Tesla can’t reaccelerate growth in the coming quarters, it will be difficult to justify the stock holding onto last year’s massive gains.
This risk has already been reflected in some bearish analyst calls. Needham & Company recently rated Tesla a Hold, and UBS Group went even further, issuing a Sell rating after January’s earnings report. Their hesitation suggests that not all of Wall Street is convinced Tesla will be able to regain its growth momentum anytime soon.
Why This Might Be the Perfect Entry Point
With Tesla now trading 25% off its highs, the risk-reward setup is looking more attractive. The RSI at 43 indicates that selling pressure is fading, while bullish analyst targets suggest that there’s significant room for upside. If momentum continues to shift and buyers step in, Tesla could be setting up for a strong recovery rally. But the next earnings report will be critical - if growth doesn’t improve, investors could see another wave of selling pressure.
Final Thoughts
Tesla’s post-earnings decline has created a major buying opportunity, but only for investors who believe in the Company’s long-term growth potential. The stock is up 10% in the past week, analyst targets suggest a lot more upside remains, and technicals indicate a possible rebound has started.
However, growth concerns remain the biggest risk. If Tesla can’t deliver a strong earnings rebound, the stock may struggle to hold onto its 2023 gains.
This could be a great entry point for those willing to bet on a turnaround. But for more cautious investors, it may be worth waiting until Tesla proves it can reignite growth.
My 2025 AI Blueprint
I first recommended Bitcoin at $300 in 2013 … before it went up 33,645%.
Now, I am revealing my 2025 AI Blueprint.
And I have something surprising to tell you about it …
It doesn't include Nvidia.
Should You Hold NVIDIA Stock for the Long Haul or Trade It?
High-profile stock market stories tend to carry a stigma for investors in the sense that few know whether it’s best to trade these names or just hold them for the long haul. Today, the largest share of attention and capital is centered around the technology sector in the United States, particularly in names exposed to artificial intelligence and its development.
This is where NVIDIA Co. (NASDAQ: NVDA) comes into play. Investors can definitely point to the stock’s previous success in price action as a testament to its future importance, but that doesn’t mean they have to necessarily keep it and not enjoy the short-term opportunities in the name. Because it’s become popular among investors, the stock offers tremendous volatility for traders to enjoy short-term gains.
So, two camps are present regarding the future of NVIDIA stock, though they don’t necessarily have to be pinned against each other. Investors holding out to the company's future potential valuations are set for reasons that will become clear in just a bit, but these same reasons also bring those looking for short-term price action swings into safety.
The Best of Both Worlds
When stocks like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) become so big and important in the global economy and the stock market, this long-term stability and recognition usually come at the expense of price action and volatility, leaving an entire breed of traders out of the game.
This is where long-term value investors like Warren Buffett like to live, unbothered by whipsaws.
However, those who employ a more active strategy, trading in and out of positions to make faster profits, could never wake up and dream of trading Apple stock since its size has driven it down to low beta status. Even on wild days for the S&P 500, stocks like Apple still don’t give traders much to be excited about.
This is where NVIDIA is unique because it offers both a long-term value perspective for those who hold it and short-term volatility through its 1.6 beta measure, allowing traders to come in and grab their fair share of the action.
Knowing this, here are some factors that drive opportunity for both camps, starting with the traders.
Profitable Areas For NVIDIA Traders
Starting with ranges to look for, a midpoint of $138.25 per share has proven to be one of the most liquid areas for NVIDIA stock over the past quarter. This means traders should consider that price a magnet, calling for the activity to be dealt with when things get slow.
When liquidity is grabbed at this price level, volume (and liquidity) seems to cut off at the $130 level on the downside and the $143 level on the upside for now. These levels have acted as great support and resistance over the past quarter, as investors can see the sharp price action behind them.
Overall, this represents a net move of $13 for NVIDIA, more or less a 10% move stretched out over two to four weeks. This is entirely reasonable, considering NVIDIA's high beta. More than that, given its size as one of the largest holdings in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes, it is not a name Wall Street can let out of its sights for too long.
This fundamental setting gives it the volatility needed to make a profit while also providing safety for investors worried about a massive move in the wrong direction, as long as they stay within these two cutoff levels for the time being.
Of course, this excludes earnings, which will be released on February 26th, 2025. That day (or even a week) might be too much of a roller coaster ride for the average stomach to handle. That being said, this is the perfect segway to talk about the future for investors holding this stock.
Expectations Are High on Wall Street
Wall Street analysts now forecast up to $3.28 in earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of 2025, which would mean a jump of 300% from today’s $0.81 in EPS for NVIDIA. Some investors may think this potential growth is already priced in after NVIDIA delivered a 92% rally over the past 12 months.
However, that should be accompanied by a bet on the downside, as nonbelievers would call NVIDIA’s bluff running up to earnings. The opposite is true, given that NVIDIA’s short interest has declined over the past month. This is a sign of bearish capitulation to dismantle the belief that growth has been priced in.
More than that, institutional buyers from UBS Asset Management decided to boost their holdings in NVIDIA stock by 11.4% as of February 2025, bringing their net position to a high of $26.9 billion today. Ultimately, some analysts also seem unbothered by the sharp rally ahead of earnings.
Those from Tigress Financial recently reiterated a strong buy rating for NVIDIA, valuing the stock at up to $220 per share. This would mean a new 52-week high for the company and an implied rally of as much as 58% from where it trades today.
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