Trump reveals his reciprocal tariff plan … do we need to worry about a recession? … your last chance to get Louis Navellier’s AI picks … a huge opportunity in natural gas Coming into today, here’s where we stood with tariffs… - Last week, President Trump signed an executive order putting a 25% tariff on all cars and light-duty trucks imported into the U.S.
- Trump had imposed a 20% tax on all Chinese imports.
- The administration had signaled it will add imports of beer and empty aluminum cans to its 25% tariffs on derivative aluminum products.
As we’re going to press, President Trump has just revealed the details of his master reciprocal tariff plan. We’re rushing to get today’s issue out, so here’s the quick recap of what we’ve learned. First, Trump confirmed that the 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made cars will begin tomorrow. As to new tariffs, Trump said that his administration will be “charging a discounted reciprocal tariff.” Specifically, they’ve tallied the combined rate of all foreign tariffs on U.S. goods plus indirect financial impositions (currency manipulation and trade barriers). Based on that total amount, the U.S. will impose a reciprocal tariff of half that amount. Trump referred to this as “kind” reciprocal. Trump also clarified that the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on all countries. Here’s the “Liberation Day Reciprocal Tariffs” list from The White House: 
Trump made his overall goal clear after delineating the various country-specific tariffs, saying: If you want your tariff rate to be 0%, build your product here in America. So, where do we go from here? Here’s what our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango wrote earlier this week about the likely path. From his Innovation Investor Daily Notes: We think that, despite all the intense and hostile rhetoric out there right now, everyone will rush to the negotiating table to quickly strike new trade deals in April. We expect the tough talk to turn into a soft walk. Deals get done when the stakes are this high — and we fully expect the U.S., Canada, the EU, and others to come to the table and hammer out a flurry of new trade agreements in the next few weeks. Consequently, we believe that most of these tariffs won’t last more than a few weeks and that by late April, most of this tariff drama will be in the rearview mirror. That means the trade war hysteria should cool down in the next few weeks. And once that happens? This market should rip higher. Let’s not forget — this selloff isn’t about what has happened. It’s about fear. Fear of what might happen. And if that worst-case scenario never shows up, the fear unwinds, and equities snap back hard. There’s a lot to unpack from Trump’s announcement today. We’ll bring you the analysis and action steps from our analysts over the coming days. I will note that stock futures are down big as I write with the Nasdaq off more than 2%. Stay tuned. | Recommended Link | | | | Elon Musk’s upcoming Optimus robot could turn him into the world’s first trillionaire… While simultaneously turning everyday investors into millionaires. Morgan Stanley has already gone on record to say that Optimus could be part of a $30 trillion opportunity… And one Silicon Valley insider has uncovered a way for Americans to potentially profit from Optimus BEFORE it gets rolled out. Click here to get all the info. |  | | To what extent do we need to worry about a recession? On Monday, both Goldman Sachs and Moody's Analytics raised their probabilities of a recession. Goldman upped the odds from 20% to 35%. Moody’s went from 15% at the start of the year to 40%. Meanwhile, if we look at the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool, its latest estimate predicts a 3.7% economic contraction in Q1. How seriously do we need to take this? Let’s go to legendary investor, Louis Navellier, editor of Growth Investor: The Atlanta Fed now expects the U.S. economy to contract in the first quarter – and that rattled Wall Street. The primary reason why GDP growth is forecast to be negative in the first quarter is due to a big trade deficit, which is because of all the dumping of imported goods and an increase in gold inventory… So, the trade deficit is now deducting a whopping 4% from first-quarter GDP growth. In other words, excluding the trade deficit, the U.S. economy is still growing. I should also add that none of the economic tea leaves signal a recession. Both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the U.S. economy is “healthy.” Louis also highlights some recent, positive economic reports. For example, we just saw a surprising jump in existing home sales. He also notes that the Trump administration is soliciting trillions in onshoring which, if successful, would boost GDP growth. Put it all together and here’s Louis’ bottom line: The U.S. is not at risk of falling into a recession. But Louis is seeing opportunity in certain AI stocks that have imploded due to recession fears Here’s Louis in yesterday’s Digest: Remember, markets are manic. Wall Street has ignored a lot of great AI news lately. [Despite AI earnings growth], investors have only focused on the negatives lately (mainly tariffs). The media only adds fuel to the fire in situations like this, because every setback in talks, and every ensuing pullback, is covered like it’s a full-blown crisis. This has sent the prices of many world-class AI stocks into correction territory. As a result, we’re now facing a grossly oversold stock market where phenomenal companies like NVIDIA are trading at incredible discounts. To Louis’ point, NVDA is down 27% from its January high. And the Magnificent 7 stocks as a whole (a proxy for mega-tech AI leadership) have fallen into an official bear market. 
Source: Koyfin It’s gotten so bad that bears have renamed the “Mag 7s” the “Lag 7s.” But as we’ve been tracking here in the Digest, Louis, along with our global macro expert Eric Fry and our technology expert Luke Lango, have been urging investors to use this selloff as a chance to buy into tomorrow’s AI leaders. This is even more important considering how AI is exploding our nation’s wealth gap. Last week, Louis, Eric, and Luke provided a roadmap for the best way to invest in AI today in light of “The Technochasm” This is their term to describe the widening wealth divide generated from cutting-edge technology and AI. In their presentation, they detailed three critical steps investors must take now to stay on the right side of this growing tech divide, along with a basket of top-tier AI stocks. Here’s Luke with what happened the last time our three analysts provided a Technochasm-themed basket of recommendations: We called the Technochasm in 2020. So, believe us when we tell you that this is a chasm that companies and individuals either leap across or fall into. There is no middle ground. Those who listened to us in 2020 banked ~1,350% from Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) in 11 months, ~1,000% from Nvidia (NVDA), and upward of 1,200% from Fulgent Genetics Inc. (FLGT) in under two years. Peanuts, maybe, compared to what’s ahead. For investors, this creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity. If you missed last week’s free presentation, you can watch it right here. Please note that today is the last day it’ll be available. Don’t miss this opportunity in natural gas We’re tracking a disconnect brewing in the natural gas market that’s setting up a buying opportunity. Gas prices are rising, but natural gas stocks are falling. In the background, demand is climbing as inventories drop. Eventually, this should result in high-quality natural gas stocks shooting higher to reflect today’s bullish imbalance. Eric, editor of Investment Report, highlighted this opportunity on Monday. To establish context for his research, let’s begin by comparing the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) to the price of natural gas (a 4-week rolling average). FCG holds oil/gas heavyweights including ConocoPhillips, Hess, EQT Corporation, Occidental, and Diamondback Energy. In the chart below, notice how FCG’s price (in green) has gone nowhere over the last two months while the price of natural gas (in black) has jumped around 35%. 
From a basic “supply/demand” perspective, the rising price of natural gas makes sense – our nation’s supply levels are falling due to demand. Here’s Eric: U.S. natural gas in storage, relative to seasonal three-year average levels, has been dropping sharply for nearly a year. The most recent reading showed storage levels 14% below average levels for this time of year. Against this backdrop, U.S. natural gas demand is on track to surpass supply by a wide margin over the next two years, which should reduce stockpiles even further below three-year average levels. Exports to foreign countries are behind much of the inventory drawdown In February, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. export plants hit a record high. March’s export volumes are likely to set another record. Better still, forecasts call for a continuation of the bullish imbalance between supply and demand after including U.S. exports. Here’s Eric with details: Looking down the road, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts LNG exports will grow by 2.1 Bcf/d in 2026, due to new export facilities… Unlike domestic demand spikes that occur during exceptionally cold winters or hot summers, LNG export demand is relatively constant. Once in place, it remains in place and continues to consume domestic gas supplies… As such, this source of demand puts continuous upward pressure on natural gas prices, especially if domestic gas production fails to keep pace. The EIA is predicting that exact scenario. Although the agency expects domestic production to increase by 3.6% during the next two years, that figure is well below the 5.8% demand growth the agency predicts. All the pieces are in place for higher stock prices for leading natural gas plays. So, why aren’t prices already higher? Part of the answer circles us back to the new segment we began last week… Uncertainty has weighed on the oil patch Last Friday, we began a new running segment: “Uncertainty Watch.” Behind the segment is a lack of confidence in the direction of our economy that has begun to lead some consumers to hold off on purchases, and some corporate planners to hold off on major cap ex expenditures. Much of it stems from President Trump’s tariff plans, which have been unclear up until this afternoon. This uncertainty has hit the oil sector. Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released the results of its quarterly survey of anonymous oil executives. Here’s one such response highlighting the effect of uncertainty: As a public company, our investors hate uncertainty. This has led to a marked increase in the implied cost of capital of our business, with public energy stocks down significantly more than oil prices over the last two months. This uncertainty is being caused by the conflicting messages coming from the new administration. Now, an astute reader might say, “Wait, oil and gas aren’t the same thing. I can understand oil stocks being down, but why are natural gas stocks lower, especially considering the supply/demand imbalance?” Here’s Eric: Tumbling crude oil prices probably deserve most of the blame... For starters, falling crude prices cast a pall over the entire fossil fuel sector. In addition, most major natural gas producers also produce significant volumes of crude oil. As a result, the shares of almost every North American natural gas producer have been sliding lower, no matter how little crude each company produces. So, we’ll see how this all shakes out. But what we know for certain is that there’s a disconnect between natural gas prices and leading natural gas stocks. History shows this divergence will eventually close. Eric recommended his favorite way to play this to his Investment Report subscribers. I won’t reveal it out of respect for subscribers, but here’s Eric referencing it: At less than eight times earnings, its share price seems substantially undervalued, relative to both its peer group and to its “hidden” earnings potential from its holdings in the Delaware Basin chunk of the Permian. But all that means is that this company currently offers a great buying opportunity. Bottom line: U.S. natural gas is “Buy,” which means this natural gas play is a “Strong Buy.” For more on joining Eric in Investment Report, click here. We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest. Have a good evening, Jeff Remsburg | 
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