The Dollar Screamed Before Powell Spoke – That’s the Tell
By Don Kaufman
Today only looked boring. It wasn't.
GDP came in hot, PCE ran warm, and the dollar absolutely ripped—the kind of big boy moves that don't happen unless someone knows something. While everyone's watching flat S&Ps and a sleepy VIX, the real story is burning up the currency markets.
The dollar surge we got wasn’t your average 1% flutter; it was a three-to-four-day tear that hammered the euro hours before Powell even opened his mouth. (We’ll get to that, too.)
Here's what nobody's connecting: A surging dollar pressures multinationals, puts headwinds on risk assets, and tightens financial conditions without the Fed lifting a finger. Companies like Meta, Apple, Amazon feel that FX pain directly on the income statement.
While all this was going on, we saw 200,000 ZB contracts change hands in the bond market. That’s institutions repositioning for what's coming.
Then Powell blew up everyone’s rate-cut fantasies. The media and the politicians want big-time cuts, but the data says otherwise. Consumer spending? Up. Core PCE? Hotter than expected.
If you want cuts, you need the data to suck first.
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