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Can AI Defense Contracts Push Palantir Shares Higher?
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 8/19/2025.
Key Points
- Palantir’s government contracts grow 53% YOY, fueled by DoD and DHS programs.
- Commercial revenue now makes up 44% of total, growing faster than government business.
- Technical outlook shows support around $168–169, with potential upside to $200.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) continues to impress shareholders and confound its critics.
Its latest earnings report shows Palantir firing on all cylinders. Over the past three years, the company has delivered:
- Revenue growth of more than 90%
- Net income growth of over 216%
- Operating income up over 220%
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These metrics underpin the bulls' case for Palantir's hefty valuation and robust stock performance. One of its primary customers is the U.S. government, especially the Department of Defense (DoD).
Initially, revenue came from pilot or proof-of-concept contracts, but soaring demand for artificial intelligence (AI) has turned Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Program (AIP) into an entrenched incumbent. Multiple branches of the U.S. military now deploy AIP under multi-year agreements, yet that may understate the company's growth potential.
Leaning Into a More Efficient Pentagon
A common bear argument is that government contracts can face delays or disruptions. That scenario played out at BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) last week, when a dispute with the U.S. Army drove a $32.5 million year-over-year revenue decline and prompted a cut to full-year guidance.
By contrast, Palantir's government segment grew 53% year over year, reinforcing investor optimism. The newly passed One Big Beautiful Bill lifts the DoD budget to over $900 billion, with $150 billion earmarked for disruptive defense technologies. Including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) swells that total to $320 billion, encompassing contracts with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Palantir's long-standing relationship with DHS and its comprehensive, cloud-based law enforcement platform cement its status as an industry incumbent. The U.S. Army further confirmed this by rolling 75 individual contracts into a single $10 billion award. While skeptics note that this isn't "new" revenue, removing contract overlap could boost Palantir's bottom-line growth over the contract's life.
Commercial Growth: Palantir's Next Frontier
Although government deals still dominate, Palantir's commercial segment is expanding rapidly. In its August earnings report, commercial revenue accounted for 44% of total revenue (41% in the U.S.)—a marked improvement over prior years. Crucially, the commercial business is growing faster than the government side, suggesting a path toward parity by decade's end.
The Path to $200 May Take Time
After ranking among the hottest technology stocks since late 2024, PLTR endured a roughly 40% sell-off in early 2025—one that proved a solid buying opportunity. The stock now finds support near its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at about $168.50.
Heading into a seasonally weak period, the MACD line sits just above its signal line, signaling waning positive momentum and the potential for a short-term pullback. Traders seeking entry points can watch these support levels:
- $168–169: 20-day SMA; key short-term support.
- $160–162: July–August 2025 consolidation zone.
- $150–152: March–June 2025 breakout area; secondary support on a deeper retracement.
Longer-term bulls are targeting $200—a "large number" highlighted by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives—but in the near term, a break above $190 (a new all-time high) may be sufficient to attract fresh buyers.
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