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Monday's Featured News

Palantir's Soaring Valuation—Justified or Overhyped?

Written by Chris Markoch. Published 8/14/2025.

Edit: Palantir's Soaring Valuation—Justified or Overhyped? open-track-here

Dhaka, Bangladesh 04 May 2025: Palantir company logo on the screen of smartphone. — Stock Editorial Photography

Key Points

  • Palantir’s Q2 earnings beat estimates, with a Rule of 40 score of 94% and strong growth in both commercial and government segments.
  • Despite a lofty 616x P/E and 150x P/S, bullish investors argue GAAP accounting undervalues Palantir’s long-term digital assets and AI growth potential.
  • Bears cite slowing growth risk, heavy reliance on government contracts, and stock-based compensation as key valuation concerns.

Any discussion of Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) inevitably revolves around valuation. Investors know that fundamentals matter—yet when you look at PLTR stock, you see the S&P 500's top performer, which climbed to a new all-time high after the company's August 4 earnings release.

Palantir delivered a strong report, headlined by a remarkable Rule of 40 score of 94%. Revenue and earnings both beat estimates, each rising year over year, and management offered bullish forward guidance. The company's commercial and government segments continue to show robust growth.

Still, it's hard to ignore that PLTR trades at roughly a 616x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and a 150x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Even for a technology name accustomed to premium multiples, a share price north of $184 means investors are paying steeply for future profits.

Why Traditional Metrics Might Miss the Mark

Perhaps conventional valuation tools don't capture the full picture. In our digital-first economy, GAAP accounting can understate the long-term earnings power of firms like Palantir. Consider that the company's most valuable assets—proprietary software, large language models, and an integrated customer platform—are expensed immediately rather than capitalized. That treatment suppresses current profits and inflates the P/E ratio.

It's also possible that "this time is different." History offers parallels: Amazon in the late 1990s and NVIDIA more recently both traded at sky-high valuations until their business models matured and earnings caught up. Many accounting rules were crafted for an agrarian or industrial economy and don't align neatly with digital enterprises.

Palantir's growth story remains early. Despite signing over 100 new contracts in the latest quarter, its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is still in the early adoption phase. CEO Alex Karp even joked that, at current demand levels, the company might have to turn business away—underscoring its rapid growth potential.

For perspective, Palantir earned $0.31 per share in fiscal 2024. After two quarters of fiscal 2025, it's already delivered $0.29 in EPS. If that pace holds, earnings could nearly double year over year, sharply lowering the P/E ratio even if the share price remains unchanged.

The Bears Have a Point

Skeptics note that sustaining 48% year-over-year revenue growth—achieved most recently—would be a tall order indefinitely. Statistical norms suggest some regression to the mean. Additionally, more than 50% of Palantir's revenue still comes from government contracts, which can be vulnerable to budget cuts despite bullish narratives about Palantir becoming the government's operating system.

Stock-based compensation (SBC) is another concern—but not for the usual reason. Palantir's Rule of 40 calculation adds back non-cash expenses like SBC to boost its adjusted operating margin. However, as the stock price climbs, SBC becomes less attractive for recruiting, and the company has signaled plans to trim its workforce.

Is PLTR Right for You?

Palantir is priced for near-perfect execution—or for a future in which perfection is attainable. Even if you're willing to look past the lofty valuation, the stock may still be too expensive for many investors.

One strategy is to open a starter position—allocating a modest amount now and increasing your stake if Palantir continues to deliver strong results. This approach suits investors with a long time horizon who can weather volatility. Many retail holders of PLTR stock emphasize a multi-year growth thesis rather than focusing on quarterly swings.

Regardless of position size, brace for volatility. PLTR plunged 40% between February and April when sentiment toward the AI trade soured. With the company priced for perfection, pullbacks are likely.


 
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