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Don Kaufman here. |
Stop paying attention to the S&P right now. Forget it. |
Most traders are glued to every S&P tick when it hits the lower edge of its expected move. That's exactly when you should stop watching. Here's why the "chicken's done" moment changes everything about how you should trade. |
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THE 6360 MOMENT THAT DECIDED EVERYTHING |
We opened at 6380. Immediately got sucked to 6370. Boom – chicken's done. |
That entire decision got made in the first 10-15 seconds of the cash open. |
The SPX hit the lower edge of its expected move at 6360. Once that line gets crossed, your entire trading day transforms. |
You're not trading the S&P anymore – you're trading around the boundary. |
WHY BOUNDARIES TRUMP INDEX OBSESSION |
Here's what retail doesn't understand: when markets hit expected move boundaries, individual stock mechanics become more important than index direction. |
Apple: Hit the lower edge, cracked it. In line with the broader market. |
Microsoft: Definitively outside its expected move, getting destroyed. |
Amazon: Well outside its expected move, tried for the corner and missed. |
Google: Strength in utter weakness, still flirting with all-time highs. |
This is what matters now. Not whether the S&P goes up or down another few handles. |
THE CORRELATION SHIFT THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING |
Something snapped overnight. The advance-decline line broke. We shifted into heavier correlation mode. |
When correlation increases, individual stock analysis becomes dangerous. Retail's still thinking "but I own Palantir, but I own Google." |
Who gives a crap? Because in the end, they're gonna hit 'em all. Ain't no place to hide. |
This is when you stop thinking about individual products and start thinking about market structure. The little algos smell blood when everything starts moving together. |
THE ROTATION GAME NOBODY SEES |
The advanced decline line broke overnight. Now we're rotating back toward tech. But tech ain't exactly ripping – there's a bid, but it's meager while everything else gets hammered. |
The pattern: Rotation after rotation. When other sectors catch bids, they start selling tech again. |
This is why obsessing over S&P direction misses the real action. |
THE ACTION PLAN: TRADING AROUND BOUNDARIES |
Step 1: Stop watching the S&P once it hits boundaries. The index tells you nothing useful anymore. |
Step 2: Focus on individual boundary breaches. Which names are holding vs. getting destroyed. |
Step 3: Watch correlation shifts. When everything moves together, individual strength becomes a target. |
Step 4: Trade the rotation. If advance-decline improves, sell what's been holding up. |
BOTTOM LINE |
The S&P hit 6360 – the lower edge. Your day is now about dancing on that boundary, not predicting direction. |
Individual stock mechanics matter more than index movement when you're trading around boundaries. |
Most traders keep staring at the S&P, missing the real game happening underneath. Stop paying attention to what everyone else is watching. Start trading the structure nobody sees. |
When you're at the boundary, the boundary is your trading universe. Everything else is just noise. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. In/Out Trades are still one of the best ways to play this current market setup, earlier today I closed out an XHB put spread today for 30% gains. It just took one day for it to work. If you'd like more info, click here. |
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