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Big Analyst Revisions Could Be Ahead for SoFi Stock
Written by Gabriel Osorio-Mazilli. Published 8/26/2025.
Key Points
- SoFi stock has new fundamental tailwinds working in its favor, placing the current Wall Street analyst consensus under pressure to be changed.
- Upward revisions could send the stock higher in the coming months, and investors need to be prepared for that.
- As investors can see, institutions are already ahead of the wave in their buying activity.
Wall Street analysts are typically cautious about upgrading a company's valuation or rating when its stock underperforms the S&P 500 or its industry peers. That hesitation stems from the risk to their reputations if they back a laggard.
Shares of SoFi Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) may exemplify this dynamic. After trailing the broader market and its real estate sector peers for several quarters, the stock has surged in recent months—a rally that, according to U.S. macroeconomic data, may just be beginning.
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Given this momentum, analysts may be overdue in revising their ratings and price targets for SoFi. As the risk of being on the "wrong side" of history diminishes, early investors could benefit from the potential upside and subsequent momentum.
SoFi Stock: In the Eye of the Hurricane
Investors should watch two key indicators of SoFi's mortgage exposure: housing supply and building permit volumes, both currently at cyclical extremes.
Put simply, supply is at a cyclical high while new permits sit at cyclical lows. As conditions normalize, demand for mortgage financing could spike, and SoFi is well positioned to benefit, potentially boosting its valuation.
The other indicator is the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy. Following the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled potential rate cuts by September 2025, likely translating into lower mortgage rates.
Such lower financing costs could reignite the mortgage market, making SoFi a name to watch for a breakout. However, investors should also weigh additional factors before drawing conclusions.
Why Analysts May Need to Shift
Currently, Wall Street analysts rate SoFi stock as a Hold with a $19.30 price target, implying 22.6% downside. However, given the fundamental tailwinds and a 91.1% rally over the past quarter, that stance may soon be outdated.
Evidence of this shift appears in short interest: a 16% decline over the past month, signaling bearish capitulation as short sellers acknowledge a favorable risk-reward setup for buyers.
In its latest quarterly results, SoFi reported EPS of $0.08 versus the $0.06 consensus, a near 50% beat that should prompt analysts to raise their outlooks.
Analysts now project EPS of $0.12 for Q2 2026, likely reflecting the discussed tailwinds. Yet SoFi's stock price hasn't fully priced in that growth.
One way to gauge this is the price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio, which compares valuation to anticipated EPS growth and indicates whether future growth is already baked into the price. Any ratio below 1.0x points to upside potential for future growth. SoFi's PEG of 0.6x suggests the market remains too cautious.
This compelling setup attracted institutions: over the past quarter, $866 million in institutional purchases, underscoring renewed conviction and giving retail investors another reason to consider SoFi for the coming months.
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