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Regards,
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Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research
Visa Beats Q3 Earnings Expectations, So Why Did the Market Panic?
Written by Leo Miller
Key Points
- Visa beat Q3 2025 earnings expectations with strong revenue and profit growth, but the stock dipped due to cautious forward guidance.
- Consumer spending remains strong, driving solid payment volume growth and reinforcing Visa’s position in a healthy economy.
- Visa is expanding into stablecoins, using them to speed up global money transfers and reach emerging markets through its Visa Direct platform.
Visa (NYSE: V) is a dominant player in the worldwide payments industry, and even amid macroeconomic difficulties, the stock has delivered impressive performance in 2025 so far.
As of the July 29 market close, Visa shares have provided a year-to-date (YTD) total return of more than 11%, moderately surpassing the approximately 9% total return of the S&P 500 Index.
However, the company’s July 29 earnings release weighed on the stock. Although the firm beat expectations on both sales and earnings in the quarter, V stock fell by 2%-3% in after-hours trading.
So, what caused markets to sell the stock after the results? And how does this impact Visa stock going forward?
Mixed Signals: Strong Earnings, Cautious Outlook
In its fiscal Q3 2025 results, Visa reported revenues of just under $10.20 billion, equating to 14% revenue growth. This solidly beat estimates of around 11% growth. The company also noted impressive adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.98, a 23% increase, beating the analyst estimate of 17%.
However, Q4 guidance may have been responsible for the after-hours sell-off.
The company forecasts “high-single-digit to low-double-digit” revenue growth in Q4, and sees EPS growing in the “high single-digit range." These figures appear to be less than what analysts were hoping for.
Payment volume growth, a key business driver, remained solid at 8% in constant currency. It remained stable compared to the prior year quarter and to fiscal Q2 2025, indicating that trade wars are not having much of a negative impact on consumers so far in 2025.
Consumer Spending and Global Transactions Still Driving Momentum
The company called consumer spending "resilient." As Visa’s payment-driven business thrives on consumer health, this is good news for Visa investors. It is also good news for the overall market since consumer spending accounts for around two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
The company’s value-added services (VAS) saw robust growth of 26% in constant currency, a solid acceleration from 22% growth last quarter. This is another positive sign, as VAS is also a key growth driver and increases the stickiness of Visa’s platform, helping solidify its market position. Management said VAS is “firing on all cylinders."
In general, Visa’s business remains healthy, with strong growth across key verticals, supporting the continued bullish thesis around the stock, as the company is well-positioned to benefit from long-term economic growth.
Visa Direct and Stablecoins: How Visa Is Expanding Its Horizons
Visa added notable color to two key initiatives, Visa Direct and stablecoins.
Visa Direct is the company’s remittance platform. It enables foreign workers to send money back to their families in their home country. Banks and other financial institutions integrate Visa Direct into their platforms.
Overall, Visa Direct saw a 25% increase in transactions and added several new banks to the platform during the quarter. The company's substantial progress on this front is key. Visa sees cross-border transactions as a relatively under-penetrated, enormous total addressable market (TAM).
Thus, Visa Direct is a way for the company to drive strong growth for an extended period. The company thinks stablecoins will also be beneficial for capitalizing on this opportunity.
The firm sees stablecoins as benefiting two key areas. The first is in emerging market economies, where local currencies can be volatile and people have limited access to U.S. dollars. Consumers and businesses may prefer to hold stablecoins tied to the U.S. dollar or euros, helping their money maintain its value. To capitalize on this opportunity, Visa is expanding its offerings of stablecoin-linked cards.
The company is working to integrate stablecoins into Visa Direct. While Visa Direct often works well on its own, stablecoins can occasionally facilitate faster cross-border money movement. Early testing results have been good.
Where Opportunity Lies, Visa Finds It
Despite the drop in shares after hours, Visa remains a hard stock to bet against. Its long-term strength lies in its global scale, technological readiness, and forward-looking strategy.
By combining resilient core payment demand with innovation in tokenization and stablecoin-enabled services, the company is expanding its addressable market while reinforcing platform loyalty. The conservative guidance may reflect prudence amid macro uncertainties, but it doesn’t undercut Visa’s strategic momentum.
As more ways to pay emerge, Visa will likely be there and make money from them, adding significant weight to the finance stock’s bullish thesis.
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