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Featured Article from MarketBeat Media Deere's Sell-Off Could Be a Long-Term Buying ChanceWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 8/14/2025. 
Key Points - Deere stock falls over 8% after guidance cut citing tariffs, soft demand, and weak crop prices.
- Management reduced inventories sharply, setting up a supply boost if demand rebounds.
- Shares trade near technical support, offering a potential entry for long-term investors.
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) shares plunged more than 8% in midday trading on Aug. 14 after the company lowered its full-year guidance, citing tariff uncertainty, cautious customer spending, and weaker crop prices. Investors have been quick to punish firms warning of a slowdown. Industrial stocks have been among the market’s top performers. Before the earnings report, DE stock had outpaced the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLI), underscoring Deere’s role as a bellwether for the sector. The headline numbers beat expectations: third-quarter revenue rose to $15.2 billion versus the $14.8 billion consensus, and earnings per share (EPS) came in at $10.02 versus $9.57 expected. However, that wasn’t enough to offset the market’s reaction to the guidance cut. Guidance Cut Hits All Segments John Deere forecasted weakness across all business units and regions for the remainder of the year, citing tariffs as a primary headwind. With its significant international footprint, the company expects reciprocal duties in Europe and India, along with higher steel costs, to trim pretax results by roughly $700 million—about half of which will hit in the current quarter. CFO Josh Jepsen told analysts, "We've incorporated higher steel costs and reciprocal tariffs into our guidance, which could weigh more heavily if trade tensions escalate." Jepsen also noted slower equipment demand: Deere has reduced large tractor inventories by 45%, small tractors by 30%, and earthmoving units by 25%–30%. He added that many customers still opt for used equipment, creating additional headwinds for new-unit sales. Declining crop prices were another factor behind the weaker outlook. CEO John May observed that "corn, wheat, and soybean prices are at multi-year lows, which historically leads farmers to defer purchases of new equipment." Cautious Guidance May Be Overstated Deere is known for issuing conservative forecasts, and management acknowledged that the assumed tariff and crop-price impacts could change. Investors should remember these projections are forward-looking estimates that may differ from actual outcomes. The guidance cut also coincided with broad market weakness after hotter-than-expected inflation data. Jepsen emphasized that the company's operational discipline remains intact: "Our structural improvements and cost controls position us well for when demand returns." Meanwhile, leaner inventories could provide a supply tailwind if end-market demand rebounds, potentially setting the stage for upside earnings surprises later in the fiscal year. Is the sell-off overdone? Not necessarily—selling momentum may persist in the near term. Analysts have not issued new ratings on DE stock at the time of this writing. An Attractive Valuation and Technical Outlook At roughly 23x trailing earnings and 26x forward earnings, DE stock trades above its historical average. However, it remains in line with the broader industrial sector on a relative basis, suggesting a potential entry point for patient investors. The pullback has pushed DE stock below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that had provided support for several months. Could the shares sink further? Historical patterns suggest they can. Between late March and early April, DE stock tumbled by about 14%, starting from a level similar to today's price. Additionally, the MACD has recently crossed below its signal line, pointing to continued downward momentum in the short run. 
A similar 14% decline would bring DE to roughly $442, near prior support levels. Notably, shares subsequently rallied sharply from that point. The long-term buy-and-hold case for Deere & Co. remains intact, meaning any meaningful pullback could present a compelling buying opportunity for investors with a multi-year horizon.
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