(watch now)
| | | Don Kaufman here. | Look, I just witnessed something I've only seen a handful of times in my career... | The S&P was down over 50 points today. The advance-decline line? 50/50. | That doesn't look right to you, does it? | Here's what's really happening: We're in what I call a "non-correlated state." Tech is selling off hard - Meta was down 2.5 standard deviations at one point. But the broader market? | It's holding together by a thread. | This is one of the most dangerous positions you can be in. | Think about it - we had 70 advancers just minutes before the close, and the market was still down. That's not normal market behavior. That's rotation on steroids. | Here's the thing about tech right now: It's the Death Star. It's so big it's got gravity. | When something that massive starts to crack... | I've been tracking these S&P levels for weeks. We've been boxed in from 6250 to 6450 - a 200-point range since late June. | | | | Break above 6450? Wildly bullish. | Break below 6250? Crash and burn territory. | But here's what nobody's talking about... | The VIX isn't moving. Volatility should be screaming right now, but it's sitting there like nothing's happening. That tells me the market thinks this is just "profit taking" in tech. | I don't buy that for a second. | Because when that rotation out of tech turns into real sell-side activity, it's going to snap the advance-decline line in two. We'll go from this non-correlated state to pure correlation in minutes. | And that's when you see the market drop 60 handles... then 120... then 180. | The SPX flirted with 6360 today - that's the lower edge of the expected move through Friday. We held it by our fingernails. Start trading beyond that level, and the market literally rips itself apart at the seams. | Look, forget Jackson Hole. Jerome Powell's going to dance monkey dance until he's out of there. This isn't about interest rates - bonds were massively unchanged today. | This is about tech. And if Nvidia - the real Death Star - falls tomorrow, it's over. | I showed exactly what levels I'm watching and why this setup has me more concerned than the market realizes. The complete breakdown is in today's video. | Don't be the person giving your money to someone who saw this coming. | WATCH THE FULL ANALYSIS HERE | To your success, | Don Kaufman | P.S. The market moved 60+ handles today, but volatility is only pricing a $62 move through Friday. That doesn't leave me warm and fuzzy at all. | | | | They Missed The $10 Million Move. | You Don't Have To. | While everyone else was staring at charts that looked "dead"... | IonQ quietly cracked its Freeze Point. | 59% gain in 104 days. | Astera Labs? 61% in 22 days. | Robinhood? 66% after the ice finally broke. | These weren't lucky guesses. | They were Freeze Points - pressure building beneath the surface that 99% of traders never see. | The cracks form quietly. Then they explode. | Watch the replay and see how Gianni spotted these moves before anyone else knew they were coming. | Don't trade blind when the ice is about to shatter. | Watch The Freeze Points Replay Now | | |
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