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Top 5 ETFs and Stocks to Watch as the Fed Eyes Rate Cuts
Written by Ryan Hasson. Published 8/25/2025.
Key Points
- Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks signal that the Fed could cut rates as early as September, with markets now pricing an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut.
- Small-cap stocks stand out as major beneficiaries, with the IWM having already gained over 15% this quarter as investors anticipate easier financial conditions.
- Dividend and defensive plays could also benefit, with sectors like healthcare and homebuilders positioned for potential leadership and recovery.
For much of the past two years, U.S. markets have been governed by a higher-for-longer rate regime. Growth stocks—particularly the tech-heavy Magnificent Seven—thrived, while dividend-focused names, healthcare stocks and small-cap companies lagged. Elevated borrowing costs and tighter liquidity weighed on rate-sensitive corners of the market.
That dynamic may now be on the verge of shifting.
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During last week's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted one of his most dovish tones in recent memory. While he noted that inflation risks remain—especially if expectations drift higher—he emphasized growing concerns around the labor market and downside risks to growth.
He stopped short of pre-committing to any specific action, but his comments strongly hinted that the Fed could cut rates as early as September. Markets responded swiftly, assigning an 80% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting.
If this policy path materializes, it could set the stage for a rotation in leadership—or at least lift previously lagging segments. Dividend-paying stocks, small caps and other yield-oriented plays that suffered under high rates may finally find a bid again.
Here are five ETFs and stocks worth considering for investors aiming to get ahead of this potential pivot.
XHB: Homebuilders Could See a Meaningful Trend Develop
One of the most rate-sensitive dividend plays is the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA: XHB). Elevated mortgage and construction costs have dampened affordability over the past two years, yet tight supply and robust demand have kept homebuilder stocks relatively resilient. Should the Fed cut rates, lower mortgage rates would boost affordability and drive new demand, providing a tailwind for the sector. XHB, which holds names like D.R. Horton, Lennar and PulteGroup, would benefit directly.
XHB also offers a modest dividend yield and exposure to a highly cyclical, rate-sensitive industry. From a technical standpoint, the ETF is well-positioned: after Powell's remarks, XHB broke out of a two-week consolidation and finished Friday up over 5%, signaling institutional interest in homebuilders as rate-cut beneficiaries.
Healthcare Sector: Potential Mean Reversion
Over the past three years, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLV) has returned just 2.75%, dramatically underperforming the S&P 500 and growth sectors like technology. This underperformance reflects the higher-rate environment's tilt toward growth over defensive names. However, if monetary policy pivots, the inherently defensive healthcare sector—known for stable demand regardless of economic cycles—could stage a comeback.
XLV holds some of the largest, most stable healthcare companies in the U.S., including Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Merck (NYSE: MRK) and UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH). These firms offer attractive dividend yields, strong balance sheets and reasonable forward valuations. With healthcare trailing badly, XLV appears poised for mean reversion if policy shifts trigger renewed interest from income-oriented investors.
The Tide Is Shifting for Small-Caps
Small caps have been among the biggest victims of higher rates. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA: IWM) has returned just 7.29% over three years as elevated financing costs squeezed margins and limited capital access. Yet over the past quarter, IWM has risen more than 15.5%, signaling a resurgence of investor appetite for small-cap exposure.
A rate cut could dramatically ease financing costs and improve growth prospects for smaller companies. IWM, with its 1.06% dividend yield, offers broad exposure to this theme. Recent price action—trading at levels unseen since late 2024—and a looming $240 breakout level suggest small caps could outperform if financial conditions ease.
UnitedHealth Group: Buffett's Latest Purchase
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) stands out among XLV's top holdings as a potential contrarian opportunity. Shares are down nearly 50% from their 52-week high amid negative headlines and a Justice Department probe into Medicare billing. UnitedHealth also withdrew its annual guidance, then issued a conservative outlook for 2025.
Yet Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 13F filing revealed that Warren Buffett added roughly five million shares, valuing his stake at about $1.6 billion. At a market cap near $278 billion, UNH remains America's largest private health insurer, benefiting from scale and diversification. Its 2.88% dividend yield further appeals to income investors. If pessimism is overdone, UNH could reward contrarian buyers, and lower rates might boost profitability by reducing borrowing costs and spurring healthcare spending.
SCHD: Exposure to High-Quality Dividend Stocks
For investors seeking targeted exposure to blue-chip dividend payers, the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD) is a leading choice. SCHD screens for companies with consistent dividend growth, financial strength and attractive valuations. Its top holdings—including PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP), Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX)—offer durable cash flows and shareholder-friendly policies. SCHD's current 3.65% yield makes it attractive if Treasury and money-market yields fall following Fed rate cuts.
As policy shifts, SCHD could draw significant inflows from investors seeking reliable equity income, leveraging its combination of yield, quality and diversification in a lower-rate world.
Significant Market Rotation Could Be Around the Corner
For years, the higher-for-longer rate narrative drove market leadership—favoring growth while leaving dividend stocks, healthcare and small caps behind. Powell's dovish shift at Jackson Hole suggests that regime may be ending, potentially broadening market breadth.
If rate cuts arrive in September, underperforming sectors could finally catch up. From defensive plays like XLV and UNH to cyclical rebounds in IWM and XHB, and core dividend exposure via SCHD, investors have multiple ways to position for a potential policy pivot.
While no outcome is guaranteed, markets clearly reacted to Powell's remarks. For investors seeking yield and possible outperformance, these five ETFs and stocks offer timely opportunities in a shifting rate environment.
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