Don here…
We were sitting there, waiting for NVIDIA's earnings to drop, and I was doing some quick math on the potential impact…
$300 billion of market cap could shift in a single evening.
That's not a typo.
With 24 billion shares outstanding and a $12 expected move, we're talking about market cap swings bigger than entire Fortune 500 companies like Boeing or Costco.
So what happened?
Meh…..
This company literally set the tone for the entire AI trade. It defines what artificial intelligence stocks will do for weeks, maybe months ahead.
And all we got was….mehhh.
NVIDIA dropped about $7... on a $12 expected move, bounced back, and settled lower.
Tomorrow could be a different story. But for now it's disappointing from a volatility perspective.
Let me put this in perspective.
The SPX has been trading in this bizarre $82 weekly expected move range, but we haven't even touched the upper or lower edges yet.
That almost never happens. When it does, something big is usually brewing beneath the surface.
And with the VIX sitting pretty at 15—while volatility futures are pricing a move to 19 just 56 days out—the market is basically telling us: "Buckle up. The calm is about to end."
We're turning the corner into September, the most volatile month of the year, and I'm seeing hedging activity starting to creep higher in ways that are making my skin crawl.
This wasn't just about one company's numbers. This was about watching $4.4 trillion worth of market cap trying to find its direction—and coming up short.
The real fireworks might still be ahead.
👉 Click here to watch me break down NVIDIA's live earnings reaction and what it means for the AI trade
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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