You are a free subscriber to Me and the Money Printer. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Capital Wave Report - which features our Red-Green market signals, subscribe here. The Interviews That Shaped the Post-GFC Market - No. 1 - Brent Carlile... Wait.. .Who's Brent Carlile? (And the Week in Review)It's really not that complicated when you have a pretty simple worldview...
Dear Fellow Traveler: All this week, I laid out the most important interviews that shaped the post-2008 Global Financial Crisis world… We’re now at No. 1. There are plenty of candidates. Consider the interviews with Ray Dalio, where he trashed Bitcoin for years… only to build the ecosystem that controls almost comical stakes in BTC. Or Jamie Dimon doing the same… making sure that he trashed it enough that his bank could get regulatory capture around it. Or… we could just do my conversation with Josh Brown a few weeks ago, where I talked about how insiders have called the bottom of every financial crisis… But no… the No. 1 interview in my mind is a story that Business Insider wrote about a man named Brent Carlile. And before you start checking CFA listings to see what fund he manages… let me save you the trouble… He’s a pretty ordinary guy… who figured out something incredible in high school… The Man Who Cracked the CodeMeet Brent Carlile… He won the 2024 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading with a 532% return… His secret: doing something most investors refuse to admit… He stopped pretending fundamentals mattered and started trading government policy responses instead. His journey from high school Fed-watcher to championship trader tells you everything about what happened to markets over the past seventeen years. But more importantly, it shows why you don't need to be a macro genius to profit from the same forces he discovered. Carlile OriginsImagine being back in high school business class… if your school had one. The teacher wheels out the TV on carts every time the FOMC met… Students are now forced to watch Alan Greenspan explain policy decisions. Most kids probably used it as nap time. Carlile was studying the most important lesson of his life. (I wish I had that… all our teachers did was make us watch the O.J. Simpson trial.) Carlile wasn't watching Greenspan's words. He was watching how markets reacted to those words. By college, he was dabbling in Treasury futures, agricultural commodities, and spot FX, trying to trade macroeconomic conditions with mixed results. Then 2008 hit. TARP happened. QE began. The government's message became crystal clear… We won’t let markets function normally… meaning rich hedge funds lose… Carlile absorbed this lesson completely. When COVID crashed markets in March 2020, he didn't analyze corporate earnings. He analyzed the probability of government intervention. He bought call options on the Dow while everyone else was selling. His oil trade was even more telling. He bought puts on crude during the demand destruction, then flipped long when prices started recovering. His thesis? Government intervention would reverse the trend. Not supply and demand… But policy response. The Championship TradeCarlile's 2024 winning trade shows how sophisticated this approach has become. In early 2024, fed funds futures were pricing aggressive rate cuts that wouldn't materialize given sticky inflation. But Carlile predicted that tight financial conditions would eventually weaken economic data, forcing the market to swing back toward lower rate expectations. Then he spotted a second catalyst… The Japanese yen carry trade was unwinding. When the yen started rising in July, he knew leveraged positions would force risk-off moves, strengthening the case for dovish policy expectations. From July 17-30, he went long on fed funds futures, betting market expectations would shift. He exited on August 8 at a massive profit. Carlile wasn't trading interest rates. He was trading the market's perception of Fed policy. Why This Is Brilliant (And Terrifying)Carlile figured out that in a policy-managed market, a profitable strategy is predicting government responses to market movements… It’s not about predicting market movements alone. But here’s the thing… This approach requires constant macro analysis, policy expertise, and the ability to anticipate second and third-order effects of central bank actions. Most investors don't have the time, knowledge, or temperament for this kind of trading. Which brings me to why I built a different framework. And why I put together these interviews in a line this week… The Three-Force Simplification Carlile's success can be distilled into three measurable forces that drive all asset prices. You don't need to be a macro expert to track them. You just need to understand what to watch. Force One: LiquidityThis is the tide Carlile learned to read. When central banks print money, when credit markets are flush, when repo rates are low - that's high tide. Everything floats, including garbage companies. When the Fed tightens, when credit freezes, when margin calls cascade - that's low tide. You discover who's been swimming naked. Carlile intuitively understood this, but you can measure it directly: central bank balance sheets, repo rates, credit spreads. Before looking at any investment, ask: is the tide coming in or going out? Force Two: MomentumThis is the wave formation Carlile learned to recognize. Not the random price movements that confuse most traders, but the sustained energy of millions of participants moving in the same direction. Carlile's 2024 trade worked because he spotted momentum building in two places: economic data weakening (shifting rate expectations) and yen carry trades unwinding (forcing risk-off positioning). You can measure this mathematically without becoming a macro expert. When momentum aligns across multiple markets, waves are forming. Force Three: Insider KnowledgeThis is what gave Carlile his edge - understanding how policy insiders and market locals position ahead of major moves. Carlile had insight into government policy responses because he'd spent years watching Fed behavior. But you can track this through corporate insider buying, which surges when executives see positive changes coming. When insiders buy with their own money, I still argue they're betting on information the public doesn't have yet. And that’s usually around accommodation… Why This Framework Works Carlile's approach required predicting complex policy interactions across global markets. The three-force framework simply measures the same underlying drivers he was trading. You don't need to predict the next Fed policy shift. You just need to recognize when liquidity, momentum, and insider signals align. When all three forces point in the same direction - when the tide is rising, waves are building, and locals are paddling out - that's when you position for the move. When they diverge - when liquidity is tight but momentum is positive, or when insiders are selling but momentum is strong - that's when you wait. RealityCarlile's success proves that fundamental analysis is largely irrelevant in policy-managed markets. Yesterday was a perfect example with the rally on the back of Powell and his speech… Corporate earnings don't matter when the Fed buys bonds. Economic growth is meaningless when fiscal policy provides unlimited stimulus. What matters is your ability to read the forces that actually drive asset prices: policy-created liquidity, momentum in market expectations, and insider positioning. The three-force framework isn't about predicting the future. It's about recognizing present conditions and positioning accordingly. Because Carlile was right about one thing: markets aren't machines you can analyze with spreadsheets. They're oceans of liquidity, momentum, and information… and of course… POLICY! The question is whether you want to spend years learning to read complex macro signals like Carlile, or just track the three forces that actually matter. We do it every day at the Capital Wave Report… and this is your opportunity to ride the wave… Now… Let’s get to the week in review… Monday, August 18 The Interviews That Shaped The Post-GFC Market... No. 5 - Druckenmiller, 2018
Tuesday, August 19 The Interviews That Shaped The Post-GFC Market... No. 4 - David Tepper in 2010
Wednesday, August 20 The Interviews That Shaped the Post-GFC Market - No. 3 - Bill Ackman's 2020 "Hell is Coming" Moment
Thursday, August 21 The Interviews That Shaped the Post-GFC Market - No. 2 - Michael Howell's 2023 Reflections
Friday, August 22 Powell Just Told You Everything: A Breakdown of That Speech...
Enjoy your day… And… Stay Positive, Garrett About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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