The Turnaround Trade Nobody Wants

Don Kaufman here.

Most traders are running from Intel right now. The stock's down, the CEO's getting fired, and there's political drama swirling around the company.

Here's why I'm actually interested.

The Setup Nobody's Watching

While everyone's focused on the headlines about Intel's CEO needing to resign over CCP connections, I'm looking at something else entirely: implied volatility.

Current IV percentage? 11%.

That's one of the lowest instances of implied volatility Intel's had in the last 52 weeks. When I pulled up a three-year chart this morning, this is basically the lowest we've seen after a major gap down.

Think about that for a second.

You've got massive news - the President calling for the CEO to resign, board overhaul coming, complete corporate restructuring on the horizon - and option premiums are dirt cheap.

Why I Want This Trade

Look, I'm dead serious when I say this is the kind of stuff I want to invest in. I don't mind owning Intel.

When a company is about to get completely overhauled from the top down, that can create real value.

The CEO situation isn't just about one person. His previous company pled guilty to charges relating to CCP links. There are definitive connections that apparently the board never properly vetted.

If they missed something this obvious, what does that tell you about the entire leadership structure?

I think the whole board has to go.

This isn't just firing one guy - this is a complete organizational reset. And that's exactly what this company needs.

The Timing Problem

Here's what's driving me crazy right now: the market's giving me garbage pricing when I want to get involved.

I was thinking about selling 18 puts about 43 days out this morning. Looked at the premium: 35 cents.

Screw that. It's craptastic.

What happens if the CEO doesn't resign and starts to fight? This could get messy before it gets clean, and I'm not getting paid nearly enough for that chaos risk.

What I'm Actually Waiting For

I'd be more comfortable somewhere around the $18 level to establish a long position. And when we actually go in here, we're gonna hold it for some time.

But I need either better entry levels or better option pricing. Right now I'm getting neither.

The low implied volatility is actually scary. The market's pricing this like it's a normal corporate transition. It's not.

This is going to be wild, and I want to get paid appropriately for taking that ride.

That's why I'm also watching for big options flow here.

The Bigger Picture

Strip away all the political noise - Intel is still critical American semiconductor infrastructure. If Trump's serious about bringing chip manufacturing back to the US, a cleaned-up Intel with proper leadership could be a massive beneficiary.

I think there could be lots of upside potential in here. This complete overhaul is exactly what Intel needs, and I want to be positioned for it.

Just not at these pathetic premiums.

The bottom line: Intel's about to get the reset it desperately needs. I want to own this story. But I'm waiting for the market to give me a fair price to take the ride.

When it does, I'm in.

It's also worth watching the options flow, and whether or not we see institutions pile in.

There's only one tool that helps me do that, and it's this one right here.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

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