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| Brandon here. | We just got the fourth signal in 30 days. | Same pattern. Same warning. And it's screaming louder each time. | Friday's market rip had everyone celebrating - VIX crushed, S&P up 1.5%, bulls everywhere declaring victory. But while retail popped champagne, institutions were quietly positioning for chaos. | Here's what they saw that you didn't: | While the 30-day VIX got demolished, three-month VIX sat 25% higher. That's not normal market behavior. That's smart money hedging for violence while dumb money celebrates. | | | | THE PATTERN THAT NEVER LIES | I've tracked this VIX spread divergence for two decades. Four signals in 30 days - July 23rd, August 8th, August 12th, Friday. Each time, significant moves followed: 3.5% drops, 2.5% swings, market chaos while everyone expected calm. | But we haven't hit the big one yet. The 5-10% correction this pattern typically delivers. | And here's what makes this setup terrifying: | We're entering September - historically the market's graveyard month. The same period where institutions are clearly bracing for major volatility. While retail thinks the coast is clear, smart money is building insurance policies. | THE VALUATION REALITY CHECK | Stack up the numbers: PE ratios, forward multiples, Q ratio - Friday's close marked the most overvalued S&P in history. Not "expensive." Not "stretched." The most overvalued ever recorded. | Translation: Maximum downside when reality hits. | HOW I'M POSITIONING FOR THE INEVITABLE | The VIX spread trade pricing beautifully right now. Five-point spread around the 20 strike with three specific exit triggers that could lock 200-250% when this thing finally moves. | Because here's what 20 years of pattern recognition teaches you: You don't get four warnings in a month without something bigger brewing. The signal doesn't lie. It just gets louder until everyone listens. | Don't bet the farm on a crash. But if you're not hedging right now, you're walking naked into what could be the most violent period we've seen all year. | Full breakdown here - exact setup plus all three exit strategies | Stay sharp,
Brandon Chapman
Theo Trade | P.S. Friday's rally? Dollar weakness and Fed pivot fantasies. When bonds, gold, AND stocks all surge together, that's not strength. That's positioning for the storm everyone feels coming but won't admit. | | | | | Expected Move | SPX WEEKLY EM = 81.30 Download for TOS: http://tos.mx/!E8pt8KmP | | | | | | | ICYMI | Don's SHOCKING Intel Rant: 'Why I'd NEVER Take Government Money | Watch Don Kaufman's unfiltered takedown of the Intel government bailout that nobody else will dare say. He exposes why taking 10% government ownership is "asinine" and asks the brutal question: "What has the government done efficiently?" Plus: His explosive crypto crash prediction (already down 10% and breaking expected moves), why he thinks Jerome Powell's rate cut is "complete BS," and his shocking admission about homeowners insurance litigation. Don't miss his hilarious Peter Navarro board seat suggestion and why he believes narratives are "filed under fiction." This is Don at his most controversial - calling out media manipulation while revealing the REAL reason behind Friday's 96-point S&P rally. | =====> Watch Now | | | |
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