THE VOLATILITY WARMUP
By Don Kaufman
Something broke today. And it broke in a very significant way.
Look, I've been watching volatility futures for years. Today wasn't just another VIX spike - this was professionals rushing into panic mode.
While you're staring at the obvious stuff (S&P down 100+ handles, newsflash), I'm watching the real temperature gauge. The VVIX just clipped from 88 to 110 in four sessions. That little red line? It means all hell is breaking loose.
Here's the geek crap that actually matters: We closed a massive contango gap this week. August volatility futures were sitting at 19 versus September at 21 - that's a full two-point spread. Massive contango.
I literally told people earlier this week: get out of any volatility selling positions. Volatility hit a floor.
Now we're 20 versus 21. The gap closed dramatically. And in the coming days, you could even see August volatility start to exceed September.
Why do I care? Because it's giving me a temperature gauge on the intensity of today's move.
164,000 volatility contracts traded today on a crazy instrument most retail traders don't even know exists. That's not surface noise - that's professional hedging activity screaming danger.
The kicker? Today's volatility is just a warmup.
You gotta be in tune with this because what I'm pointing out right now expresses more than just "oh, the VIX spiked." These critical levels they're hitting imply this volatility just cracked the egg open.
Even if we rally Monday, they're gonna come back around for more.
Want to see my complete volatility analysis and the critical levels that matter?
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