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Hey there, Brandon here. |
The VIX is sitting pretty at 15. |
Markets are flat. |
Everything looks calm. |
But pull back the curtain on the futures market and you'll see something that should make every trader pay attention. |
September VIX futures are trading at 18. October's at 20. Take the average and you get 19 - that's 23% higher than the current VIX at 15. |
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In my 20 years of watching this, I've found that three-month VIX gives you a pretty good approximation of what's really happening in the futures market. |
And right now? The disconnect is screaming. |
The market is pricing significant volatility over the next 30 days while everyone's sitting here thinking we're in some kind of calm zone. |
But here's what really caught my attention when I fired up the Ghost Prints Console today... |
SKEW ticked up to 153 last Friday. That's institutions hedging themselves against a market decline at very elevated levels. They're not just expecting volatility - they're positioning for a crash. |
Now look at what this means for the anti-dollar plays everyone's been sleeping on. |
Gold's been trading this boring range between $3,300 and $3,400. Bitcoin stuck between $114k and $122k. You might expect a bounce off support, right? |
Wrong. |
Today's Ghost Prints tell a completely different story. |
Someone just put down 10,000 GLD contracts - sold the $330 calls for November 21st and bought the $297 puts for the same date. That's a synthetic short position expecting gold to break down to $297. |
But here's where it gets interesting. They also bought $320 calls and sold $325 calls for December. They're betting on volatility in both directions - down by November, potentially way up by December. |
The name of the game isn't direction. It's volatility. |
And for Bitcoin? The options market just got definitive. |
40,000 IBIT $61 puts bought at the ask price. |
Not spreads. Straight puts. Someone's betting $2.4 million that Bitcoin breaks down. |
The technical setup backs this up. Pull up an RSI study on Bitcoin and you'll see the exact same divergence pattern we saw before the 30% crash from $70k to $43k. Two lower highs in the RSI while price made slightly higher highs. |
Last time this happened, divergence lasted a couple months, then breakdown. We're seeing the same setup now. |
If we get that 5-10% equity correction everyone's hedging for, Bitcoin typically gets crushed while the dollar strengthens. Gold gets hit too if the dollar rally is strong enough. |
But if the Fed starts yield curve control? Gold explodes while Bitcoin finds its floor. |
Either way, we're looking at a breakout from these ranges. The question isn't if - it's when and which direction first. |
The volatility is coming in the next 30 days. The institutional positioning is definitive. The technical setups are screaming. |
For Bitcoin specifically, I'm looking at a 65/63 put spread on IBIT for September 1st. Costs about 68 cents, target $1.15-$1.20 for about 70% profit. |
You don't even need it to hit $63 to bank that return. |
Small pullback over the next few days while options market is positioning bearishly in IBIT, but definitely positioning for volatility in gold. |
We may go down before we go up over the next 30 days. But that calm market everyone thinks they're seeing? That's about to end. |
Watch my video here for all the details. |
The futures market doesn't lie. And right now, it's telling you to get ready. |
–Brendan Chapman |
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