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For Your Education and Enjoyment

Tempus AI's Strong Q2 Fuels Growth Story—More Upside Ahead?

Written by Leo Miller. Published 8/13/2025.

Key Points

Tempus AI shares have nearly doubled in value in 2025, an impressive run-up for this recently public company.
The firm's Q2 report showed huge revenue growth and significant profitability improvements.
While analysts see limited near-term upside, Tempus still has a large long-term opportunity in front of it.

Over the past two years, one of the most intriguing healthcare companies to go public has been Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM). Unlike many recent healthcare IPOs—often dominated by pre-revenue biotech firms—Tempus has established a solid revenue foundation.

The company posted roughly $952 million in sales over the past twelve months and has made notable strides in profitability. Its stock has also rewarded shareholders: as of the Aug. 12 close, Tempus has delivered a 2025 return of 89%, nearly fulfilling the double-bagger potential we forecast in December 2024.

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Tempus recently reported Q2 2025 results. Below, we analyze the key metrics and update our outlook. Can Tempus maintain its strong performance over the next eight months, or should investors moderate their expectations? All data reflect the Aug. 12 close.

Strong Q2 Growth and Path to Positive EBITDA

In Q2, Tempus generated nearly $315 million in revenue, representing year-over-year growth of almost 90%. This solidly beat Wall Street estimates of around 79% growth and outpaced consensus on adjusted loss per share, which came in at $0.22. Profitability improved significantly both year over year and sequentially.

Adjusted gross margin rose to 62.8% (versus 61.4% in Q1 2025 and 56.8% in Q2 2024), while the adjusted EBITDA margin improved to –1.8% from –6.3% in Q1 2025 and –18.8% in Q2 2024 (source). The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $1.26 billion from $1.25 billion.

Management reaffirmed its goal of $5 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2025, compared to a $110 million loss in 2024. The takeaway: Tempus is executing on its plan, with accelerating demand and a clear route to operating profitability—a positive sign for investors.

Analysts Raise Targets, Near-Term Upside Looks Limited

After the Q2 release, analysts at Morgan Stanley raised their price target on TEM from $65 to $68. However, the MarketBeat consensus target sits just above $65, suggesting modest downside risk from the Aug. 12 close near $66. Overall, recently updated targets average about $68.60, implying just over 3% upside.

Shares have never closed above $90—a level that would require a roughly 36% rally—indicating near-term returns may be muted compared to the start of 2025. Furthermore, if shares remain at current levels, they could face heightened downside risk before the next earnings release; Q4 2024 results prompted a 15% one-day drop on a slight earnings miss.

Long-Term Opportunity in a Large R&D Market

While near-term upside appears constrained, Tempus's long-term potential remains significant. In 2021, pharmaceutical and biotech firms spent $276 billion on R&D. As these companies increasingly adopt Tempus AI's solutions, a portion of that budget should flow to Tempus.

Even with expected 2025 revenue of $1.26 billion, Tempus would capture only a small fraction of that market, underscoring a large total addressable market and reinforcing the company's long-term bull case. Investors will need to track growth and profitability improvements closely to confirm whether Tempus can sustainably capitalize on this opportunity.

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