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Don Kaman here. |
Most retail traders think each stock in their portfolio moves for its own reasons. Palantir goes up because of AI contracts. Quantum computing stocks moon because of breakthrough news. Nuclear energy plays rip because uranium is hot. |
Here's what those traders miss: The same handful of prop firms and independent traders are driving the momentum in ALL of these names. Understanding this connection isn't just market trivia - it's your early warning system for when momentum is about to reverse across your entire book. |
The Trading Psychology Nobody Talks About |
The traders living in this space - prop shops, momentum funds, aggressive independent traders - they don't wake up and say "Today I'm buying Palantir because of their government contracts." They wake up and say "Today I'm buying everything that moves." |
These aren't fundamental analysts making careful stock-by-stock decisions. They're momentum traders running strategies that work across any name with high beta and decent liquidity. |
Palantir, quantum computing stocks, nuclear energy plays, crypto miners - to them, it's all the same trade. |
When they're making money, they buy more of everything. When they start losing money, they don't analyze which specific names to keep. They cut risk across the entire book. |
Why This Kills Retail Traders |
You think you're diversified because you own five different "AI stocks" or three different "clean energy plays." But from a momentum perspective, you're holding the same position five times over. |
I've been watching this play out in real-time. Palantir rips, quantum names follow. Nuclear energy breaks out, everything else with high beta catches a bid. It's not coincidence - it's the same money flowing into the same risk-on mentality. |
The flip side kills people: When the selling starts, it happens everywhere at once. These traders don't cherry-pick which momentum names to dump. They dump the momentum trade entirely. |
Your Early Warning System |
Instead of analyzing each position individually, start watching for cracks in the momentum foundation: |
Leading Indicators: |
Highest-beta names showing weakness despite good news Volume patterns shifting from institutional buying to selling Correlations spiking between supposedly unrelated sectors
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The tell-tale sign: When you see profit-taking starting in one momentum favorite, don't wait around to see if your other names will be different. They won't be. |
The Names That Move Together |
If you're holding any of these, understand they're tied together by the same psychology: |
AI/Data Names - Palantir, anything with "artificial intelligence" in the description
Quantum Computing - Pure speculation plays that move on headlines
Nuclear Energy - Uranium miners, reactor builders, nuclear renaissance plays
Crypto-Adjacent - Mining stocks, blockchain plays, anything that trades like crypto
Defense Tech - Space companies, drone manufacturers, next-gen military contractors |
These might seem like different sectors, but they're all momentum plays driven by the same trader behavior. |
How to Trade the Psychology |
Strategy 1: Ride the Wave, Respect the Reversal
When momentum is working, lean into it. But the moment you see cracks in one pack member, start taking profits across the board. |
Strategy 2: Use the Strongest as Your Canary
Watch whichever name has been the momentum leader. When it shows weakness despite good fundamentals, that's your signal the psychology is shifting. |
Strategy 3: Scale Out Together
If you're holding these names, treat position sizing as a pack decision. Don't go all-in on five different names that are really the same trade. |
The Bottom Line |
Most traders lose money in momentum stocks because they think they're making five independent decisions when they're really making one decision five times. |
The momentum money doesn't care about your sector analysis or fundamental thesis. When risk appetite changes, everything that moves like a momentum play gets sold together. |
Understanding this won't eliminate volatility from high-beta trading. But it will help you see the turns before they happen, instead of wondering why all your "different" positions crashed simultaneously. |
Trade the psychology, not just the fundamentals. Because in momentum land, psychology moves the money that moves the stocks. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
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Playbook Page | When you're really close to unchanged in a week, the whole marketplace revolves around a pretty heavy amount of gamma risk. You absolutely could get rocking today. This is where you can kick in a lot of servers and see big sell side activity. | Rule: Don't discount ability to hit upper or lower edge of expected moves on gamma-heavy days. | |
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