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Today's editorial pick for you
Amazon Earnings Ignite $300 Stock Target
Posted On Oct 31, 2025 by Chris Markoch
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares are heading higher after the company's strong earnings report after the market closed on October 30. The gain of over 10% in AMZN stock puts the 52-week high around $250 into play. But long-term investors may want to set their sights much higher.
Table of Contents
Amazon's bullish earnings report is a solid reminder that fundamental news matters more than noise. That’s not to say that the October outage of Amazon Web Services (AWS) was a nothing burger for its customers. However, investors largely sloughed it off, and that's even more the case after the company reported earnings.
The headline focus will be on the company's AWS business with good reason that I'll get into in a little later. But this is also a reminder that the company's business, which includes ad services and – oh yeah that e-commerce business – is starting to fire on all cylinders. This multi-faceted approach is where the bull case for AMZN stock begins to expand.
Amazon is Building an AI Infrastructure
AWS accounts for about 18% of Amazon's total revenue. But it plays a vital role in the company's bull case. In fact, it's been the main reason that the stock has been a laggard for much of 2025.
So, it's not a surprise that investors cheered the division's $33 billion contribution to Amazon's revenue. That was a 20% increase and the strongest growth since 2022.
Demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure will continue to grow at a nearly unimaginable rate. You heard that from companies like Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). Both hyperscalers reported that their respective capital expenditure (capex) commitments for AI infrastructure were insufficient. Both are increasing those capex commitments by billions of dollars.
Amazon has also been spending billions on AI, but it's employing a different business model. Rather than hosting AI, which relies on partnerships, the company takes a vertically integrated approach in building its own AI infrastructure. For example:
Amazon just launched its $11 billion data center – Project Ranier – in Indiana.
That data center is equipped with 500,000 of Amazon's proprietary Trainium 2 chips, which are specifically designed for training Anthropic's Claude large language models (LLMs).
That comes at a cost, of course. Amazon has spent close to $100 million on these efforts in the last 12 months alone. But it also has pricing power and margin growth that other hyperscalers won't be able to match.
A Sum of Its Parts Story
Amazon is a three-legged stool. When all the legs are sturdy, as was the case this quarter, the stock looks much more compelling.
For example, the company's ad revenue was $17.7 billion in the quarter, a 22% YoY increase and well on the path to eclipsing last year's $56.2 billion annual run rate. As companies like Alphabet and Netflix will tell you, this is the real growth driver.
And that growth, and that of AWS, is fueled by the company's position as the pre-eminent e-commerce solution. Amazon's e-commerce business generated $67.4 billion in the quarter. That accounted for 37% of the company's total revenue and compared bullishly to the $247 billion it generated in all of 2024.
Why $300 May be the New Floor for Amazon Stock
A $300 price target for AMZN stock heading into 2025 seemed preposterous. However, heading into earnings, analysts had a consensus price target of $285.97 on AMZN stock. After the post-earnings rally, the stock is within 15% of that mark, but this is likely just the beginning.
Since the earnings report, 17 analysts have increased their price targets on AMZN stock to $300 or even higher. The most bullish price target comes from Mark Mahaney of Evercore at $335. Not only was Mahaney's price target the largest in terms of dollars, it was also the largest by percentage, marking an increase of over 50% from his prior target.
But if you use conservative estimates of five-year sales at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) around 10%, it's possible that earnings growth could double in that time. Such a move would likely drive up the company's multiple from today's 35x to somewhere in the range of 45x. That would make a stock price near $500 possible for patient investors.
But at what price? If you're committed to AMZN stock for the long haul, it's okay to chase the stock here. But with such a strong move after earnings, it's reasonable – and even likely – that the stock will give back some of those gains. Waiting for a better entry point may be a reasonable approach.
Risks to the Amazon Thesis
You'll read a lot about how this report shows that Amazon is on the cusp of eating away at the market share of Microsoft's Azure and Alphabet's Google Cloud. That's a story that won't play out for several quarters, and to be fair, there are analysts – one of whom I respect tremendously – who call foul on that assumption.
In fact, Azure and Google Cloud represent the biggest risk to the bull thesis. These companies are already entrenched and are not going away. Competition works both ways, so AWS will have to ensure it can defend its own flank while seeking to capture market share from these competitors.
The company also faces elevated macroeconomic risk. The higher interest rate cycle, which peaked in 2023, did not significantly affect enterprise IT spending. However, many AI stocks depend on this trend continuing, and that's not a guarantee.
Plus, Amazon's core e-commerce business is acutely sensitive to softening consumer demand. Recent data about credit defaults, corporate layoffs, and a prolonged government shutdown paint a worrying picture about a significant segment of the population. To date, that hasn’t shown up in Amazon's data. That will reinforce the opinion of analysts who keep saying this time is different. Those four words, however, usually turn out to be comically wrong. If they're wrong this time, the laugh will be on AMZN shareholders.
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