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Why Home Depot's Pain Could Be a Long-Term Investor's Gain
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/18/2025.
Key Points
- Home Depot's Q4 price pullback sets up a solid opportunity to buy this buy-and-hold stock.
- Dividends are in the high end of the historical range, and the stage is set for a stock price rebound in 2026.
- Balance sheet details and capital return provide incentives to buy this stock.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is rarely a bad stock to hold, but it can be a poor choice to buy at the wrong time. The best buying opportunities aren't when the price is at a peak, above its moving averages, or showing strong resistance. Instead, attractive entry points often appear after pullbacks, like the one in mid-November following the Q3 earnings release.
The Q3 earnings report was underwhelming and gave some investors an excuse to sell. Still, that pullback creates an attractive buying opportunity for others, with HD trading near one-year lows and the low end of a trading range where support is likely to be strong.
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Support is likely robust at this level because it coincides with a long-term uptrend line rooted in 2011 price action. The takeaway is that HD is under pressure today from forces outside its control, but is poised to rebound soon and is likely to deliver market-beating total returns over the subsequent three-, five-, and ten-year periods.
Home Depot: When Good News Is Bad for Business (and Why It's a Good Buy-and-Hold)
Home Depot delivered a respectable quarter despite several headwinds. One factor was a relatively mild 2025 hurricane season. Although the season produced numerous storms, the U.S. mainland largely avoided significant damage, so storm-related demand never materialized.
Even so, the company's $41.35 billion in net revenue was up 2.8% year over year and beat the consensus estimate by 55 basis points. The increase was driven by positive systemwide and U.S. comparable-store sales, as well as a larger store count.
Systemwide comps rose 0.2%, with U.S. comps up 0.1%. Comps were driven by higher ticket averages, which were partially offset by a decline in traffic. The traffic drop reflects both the subdued storm-related demand and weak housing fundamentals.
Margins were the weaker area. Gross margin improved slightly, but higher costs eroded much of that gain, leading to a year-over-year decline in profits and earnings. There is, however, a silver lining.
The earnings shortfall was tied to weaker-than-expected sales that left the company with inventory build-up. That buildup compressed near-term profitability but also positions Home Depot to benefit in upcoming quarters, with less need to replenish inventory and more opportunities for liquidation and margin recovery.
Guidance was another disappointment, with revenue and earnings forecasts below estimates. Still, tepid guidance doesn't negate the company's underlying growth and cash flow, which should be sufficient to sustain its capital return program and continue delivering value to shareholders.
Other notable details from the report include a balance sheet showing an increase in assets accompanied by corresponding increases in liabilities and equity; shareholders' equity more than doubled. The dividend remains safe and reliable.
HD: Analysts and Institutions Like This Stock But Provide Headwinds in Q4
Analysts and institutions favor HD. The 23 analysts tracked by MarketBeat maintain a consensus Moderate Buy, a steady rating for years, and institutions own more than 70% of the stock. The challenge is that analysts have trimmed targets and some institutions have reduced positions, creating a short-term headwind for the market.
This trend may continue into Q4 given the tepid release, but it is unlikely to push the stock dramatically lower.
While some analysts have cut targets, revisions in late October and early November also included increases, with most estimates clustering in the $375 to $400 range. The low end of that range aligns with important support levels.
The most likely path is for HD to test support and trade near critical levels for the next few months, then resume its long-term uptrend in early to mid-2026 as interest-rate cuts stimulate consumer spending and housing demand.
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