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Don here...
Gianni opened today's session with historical analysis that flips the bearish narrative completely.
August, September, and October are typically the worst months for stocks. Yet we rallied hard through all three.
Most traders think that means we pulled forward gains and November will disappoint. The data says otherwise.
When markets show strength during seasonally weak periods, they tend to finish even stronger during seasonally favorable periods.
The pattern has repeated for decades. And it's setting up again right now.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- Why six consecutive up months points to continued gains. When the S&P rallies six months straight, forward returns one year later average nearly 10%. The win rate 6 to 12 months out sits between 70% and 95%. November historically ranks as one of the best months ever for equities. The seasonal tailwinds are real.
- The currency setup that changes the macro regime. The dollar is topping against both the Euro and Japanese yen. When Treasuries bottom and rally from here, the typical correlation shows the dollar selling off. That creates breathing room for risk assets including crypto and precious metals. Gianni showed the exact bond levels signaling the turn.
- Why grains bottoming ends five years of beef inflation. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all showing monthly reversal patterns. When feed costs bottom, cattle prices historically top. That's not theory. That's agricultural economics that's worked for decades. Americans might finally see relief from relentless protein price increases.
- The AI investment cycle that keeps this rally alive. Big tech is spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure. Amazon just announced massive CapEx expansion. OpenAI raised fresh capital. Every quarter someone declares the AI bubble dead. Every quarter the spending continues. This private sector investment keeps economic growth positive regardless of other headwinds.
- Why market breadth concerns are actually sector rotation. The stocks lagging aren't growth names. They're defensive sectors. Consumer staples, certain healthcare stocks, real estate, utilities. When growth stocks break out while defensive stocks break down, that's acceleration into risk. Not rotation away from it. The market is selling weakness to buy strength.
Gianni spent Halloween weekend diving deep into charts across every major asset class. The conclusion pointed to one thing.
Markets need rest after reaching all-time highs. This week's sideways chop is exactly what healthy bull markets do.
Stocks can't run marathons in hours. They need breaks. They catch their breath. Then they push higher.
Tesla just made new yearly highs after consolidating all year. Amazon gapped higher twice in three days. These are lagging Mag Seven names finally catching the momentum that Meta and Microsoft had earlier in the year.
That rotation extends bull markets. It doesn't end them.
The semiconductor sector Gianni tracks closely is showing signs of needed consolidation. Chips rallied over 100% in six months. That's exhaustion territory requiring sideways digestion.
But exhaustion doesn't mean reversal. It means pause.
The Trinity Trades portfolio sits positioned for this exact environment. Cash reserves ready for deployment. Core positions in Tesla, AMD, and Micron holding technical strength.
The bigger picture remains intact. AI investment driving economic growth. Seasonal patterns favoring continued strength. Currency movements creating macro tailwinds.
Crypto sits at a critical inflection point. Bitcoin holding support between 103K and 107K determines whether we see 90K or reversal. Ethereum already broke its October low while Bitcoin held. That divergence matters.
November represents do or die time for crypto. Break support and the correction accelerates. Hold here and the narrative flips completely.
Gianni's not making predictions. He's watching price action at critical levels and responding accordingly.
That's the difference between trading probability and trading hope.
→ Watch Gianni's complete session
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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