The wilder the market, the better my edge.
I just closed a 4,900% VIX winner using a volatility structure most traders never see.
On November 25th at 2pm EST, I'm pulling back the curtain in a Black Friday summit. You'll get my exact framework for trading chaos, plus live Q&A.
This isn't theory. This is what I'm doing right now.
👉 REGISTER FOR THE BLACK FRIDAY VOLATILITY SUMMIT
Don here...
Gianni laid it down…
A 70% chance that stocks bottomed.
Not guessing. Not hoping. Actual probability based on what just happened across three major market indices.
The S&P dropped below its October 10th low Friday morning. The NASDAQ did the same thing. Both flushed through support levels everyone was watching.
Then something interesting happened. The Dow never broke its October low. Not even close.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- Why one index holding while two break tells you more than all three moving together. When defensive blue chips show strength while growth stocks flush, that's not distribution. That's rotation creating the setup for broader rallies once selling pressure exhausts itself.
- The sentiment data proving this correction ran exactly as designed. Bearish readings hit levels not seen since 2022 while the S&P only corrected 5%. When fear peaks before price fully breaks, that's emotional capitulation without structural damage.
- How Fed officials "suddenly" supporting December rate cuts wasn't sudden at all. Markets dropped specifically to force their hand. Policy makers watch credit spreads and liquidity conditions religiously. When both tighten simultaneously, they signal cuts at the lows.
- Why breadth improving Friday matters more than price action. Equal weight ETFs outperformed cap weighted indexes. More stocks participated in Friday's rally than contributed to the prior week's decline. That's the opposite of what happens when corrections accelerate.
- The seasonal pattern that's repeated for 74 years straight. Markets tend to bottom around November 20-21st before rallying into year end. Not every year. But frequent enough that ignoring the pattern costs more than respecting it.
The Russell 2000 closed up nearly 3% Friday. Small caps don't lead like that when markets are breaking. They get destroyed first and recover last.
Gianni emphasized this isn't a foregone conclusion. The 30% downside case remains real if tech can't reclaim leadership soon.
Healthcare and biotech have carried portfolios through recent turbulence. His Trinity Terminal identified that rotation months before it became obvious. But healthcare alone can't sustain a bull market when it represents just one sector.
Technology needs to participate. Semiconductors need to stabilize. The mega cap names that drove gains all year need to stop bleeding.
Friday's close puts that test front and center. Bears need to prove they can break support with conviction or bulls get another window to press into seasonally favorable periods.
The correction everyone wanted just happened. Down 5% from highs. Sentiment crashed. Volatility spiked. Credit spreads widened enough to justify Fed accommodation.
Now comes the hard part. Determining whether Friday's reversal marks the actual low or just another failed bounce before deeper selling.
Gianni's tracking specific signals. If tech leads the next rally attempt. If breadth continues improving. If the NASDAQ can reclaim its October support after breaking below it.
→ Watch Gianni explain the three-index divergence pattern, sentiment extremes, and what happens next if this was the bottom
The setup matches previous bottoms. The probability math supports bulls. The seasonal window opens next week.
What remains is watching whether markets follow the script or write a different ending.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
0 Response to "The Market Just Did Something It Only Does at Bottoms"
Post a Comment