My Play If Bitcoin Bounces

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"MSTR is flashing a weekly sniper buy signal after getting absolutely crushed alongside Bitcoin."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

While everyone's freaking out about Bitcoin's 30% haircut from 126K down to 80K, I'm seeing something different on MSTR.

This thing has fallen hard into major support, and if Bitcoin finds a floor here, MSTR back toward 200 looks like low hanging fruit.

 

What I'm Seeing

MSTR is flashing a weekly sniper buy signal after getting absolutely crushed alongside Bitcoin.

The weekly chart setup is what caught my attention - we're sitting on significant support levels after this washout move.

Here's the thing about Bitcoin proxies: they amplify moves in both directions. We saw that pain on the way down. But if Bitcoin catches a bid here, MSTR should react faster and stronger than the underlying.

Why This Setup Makes Sense

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Here's what I think is happening: MSTR's stock price has fallen below the value of their Bitcoin holdings. That feels like an overreaction that should correct.

The weekly sniper buy signal combined with these oversold conditions? That's the kind of setup where you can risk small for potentially big moves.

The Bitcoin Question

Look, I don't know if Bitcoin has actually bottomed here. That's the big question, right?

But when you're looking at a 30% drop from 126K to 80K, we're in oversold territory where bounces happen.

And MSTR? It's just more beaten up than the other Bitcoin plays right now. That's what creates the opportunity.

How I'm Playing It

I'm using December call spreads to play this bounce idea. The volatility premium on MSTR makes spreads attractive while giving defined risk exposure to any move back toward those 200+ levels.

I'm not chasing this thing if it runs. If Bitcoin rolls over from here, MSTR is going to get ugly fast.

But that weekly buy signal combined with these support levels and the stock trading below asset value? That's the setup I'm looking for.

Your Action Plan

MSTR might be the cleanest way to play any Bitcoin bounce from these levels. The weekly sniper buy signal, the oversold condition, the fundamental disconnect - it's all lining up.

Just remember: this is a Bitcoin proxy trade. If crypto stays weak, this goes nowhere. But if Bitcoin finds buyers down here, MSTR should lead that move higher.

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