Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance Dear Reader, You know what's funny about trading? Sometimes watching your worst disasters teaches you the most about finding your next big winner. Three weeks ago, Bryan was taking heavy artillery fire over his Merck position. At our Houston meetup, every single person cornered him: "What are you doing with Merck? Why is Merck down? What do I do with Merck?" I watched him getting hammered from all directions. He could have folded. Could have said, "You know what, fine, sell it, take the 80% loss." That's what most traders do when a position goes sideways and everyone's breathing down their necks. But here's what Bryan did instead... He looked at that trade again, and nothing fundamental had changed. All the metrics that made him enter Merck were still there. The fundamentals were solid. The valuation was screaming undervalued. The only thing that had changed was the stock price going down. So instead of panic-selling like everyone wanted, Bryan bought more time. Rolled the position forward. And you know what happened? As soon as Nvidia crashed and everyone said the AI trade might be over, risk-off money flowed straight into safe, undervalued healthcare. In less than a month, Bryan turned this absolute dog loser into a winner. Sold it for a gain. It's a good reminder about sticking to your methodology when you know the fundamentals are right, even when the market's telling you you're an idiot. Why I'm Telling You This Story I'm telling you this because right now, Bryan and I are seeing the exact same setup in another stock. And this time, we're both locked in on it. Novo Nordisk - ticker NVO - is sitting at five-year lows, down 45% this year while its main competitor, Eli Lilly, is hitting all-time highs and becoming the first trillion-dollar pharmaceutical company. Two companies in the same exact GLP-1 weight loss space, and one's at all-time highs while the other is getting destroyed. This is Novo Nordisk we're talking about. Last year, their market cap was bigger than Denmark's entire GDP - $570 billion versus $470 billion. These guys ARE the country. They're not going anywhere. Everything That Could Go Wrong Did Go Wrong Novo had the year from hell, and that's exactly why this is such a massive opportunity: Their Alzheimer's drug got rejected - but that was a hail Mary. Nobody thought taking their GLP-1 drug and applying it to Alzheimer's would work. They lost a bidding war with Pfizer. But why would Pfizer even be bidding in this space if they didn't think the market was massive? They fired their CEO and hired a new one. They're losing market share to Lilly. But the market is so enormous there's room for multiple players. We're talking about $52 billion in 2024 growing to $187 billion by 2032. That's 17% annual growth. The Numbers Don't Lie Here's what everyone's missing: Novo's drugs work. Ozempic for diabetes, Wegovy for weight loss - they're incredibly effective. All this Washington talk about clamping down on GLP-1 costs? Pure noise. Nobody pays those list prices. The pharmacy benefit managers negotiate deals, and Novo's margins aren't changing much. Meanwhile, they just opened these drugs up to Medicare - way more customers. |
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