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Unmined Opportunity on Hecla (HL) |
By Brandon Chapman, CMT |
Gold just posted its best session in weeks. |
Every bug on Twitter is calling for $3,000 gold. |
The Ghost Prints scanner is flashing warning signals everywhere, but it also posted something else…big bets against the yellow metal |
The console gave us tomorrow's trade today. |
And I know it sounds nutty, especially when precious metals keep climbing higher. |
So, let me break it down for you and you can decide for yourself. |
P.S. Don just unleashed a masterclass in 0DTE options trading. This isn't gambling. It's real structured strategy. Watch the replay here and see for yourself. |
The Prints Nobody Wants to See |
December 23rd delivered a masterclass in institutional hedging. |
While retail traders chased the gold rally higher, smart money deployed massive put protection. |
GDX saw 13,000 put contracts trade in a single block. GLD printed multiple 5,000+ contract put spreads. |
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SLV showed 3,000, 7,000, and 1,000 contract put blocks at the 62 strike for next-day expiration. |
Understand, this wasn't retail panic. This was institutional capital protecting gains after a six-week moonshot. Even so, it signals trouble. |
The Signal Everyone Missed |
SLV closed above its expected move for the sixth consecutive week. That's not a healthy trend. That's a parabolic move begging for mean reversion. |
Gold miners couldn't keep up. |
While gold surged to session highs, the stocks lagged. |
BTG barely moved. AG underperformed despite massive call flow in November. Even Newmont, the biggest name in gold mining, couldn't match the commodity's momentum.
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The divergence tells you everything. |
When the underlying asset rips but the stocks can't follow, you're looking at the final stage of a move. |
Why Hecla Mining Is the Perfect Short |
Most traders will try to short gold or silver directly. |
Wrong move. |
The volatility skew doesn't favor put buyers in GLD or SLV right now. |
Skew, the difference in implied volatility across strikes, shows us exactly how much option buyers are paying for out-of-the-money contracts. When you pay elevated premiums for out-of-the-money protection, you tip your hand that you are a little desperate. |
Don't be desperate to take that trade. |
Hecla Mining (HL) gives you a better setup. The stock closed at $20. It's extended. It's weak relative to silver. And the options pricing actually works in your favor. |
Here's the structure. Buy the 20 put. Sell the 18 put. Net debit is $0.73 per spread. |
You're buying 72% implied volatility and selling 74% implied volatility. That pricing edge doesn't exist in the ETFs. The two-strike spread gives you $2 of width for less than a dollar of risk. Maximum profit is $1.27 per spread. That's a 174% return if HL drops just 10% to $18. |
The Trade Math |
HL is a silver miner. Silver just ran 41% in the last 12 weeks. It's up 47% in the last six weeks. That's not sustainable. When silver reverts, the miners get crushed harder than the commodity. |
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You need HL at $18.73 to hit 70% of max profit. That's a $1.27 drop from current levels. Less than 7%. After a 47% rally in six weeks, a 7% pullback isn't aggressive. It's inevitable. |
The risk is defined at $73 per spread. The profit potential is $127 per spread. You're not betting on a gold market collapse. You're playing normal profit-taking after an extraordinary run. |
Why This Week Matters |
The institutional prints on December 23rd weren't random. They came at precisely the moment gold hit new highs and miners failed to confirm. Smart money doesn't hedge at bottoms. They hedge at tops. |
Silver stocks are the riskiest plays right now. The commodity outperformed the equities all week. That divergence doesn't resolve with miners suddenly catching up. It resolves with both selling off, and the miners dropping harder. |
Most traders will miss this setup. They'll keep buying dips in GDX. They'll add to SLV positions because the narrative sounds bullish. They'll ignore what the options market is screaming. |
The Ghost Prints Surveillance Console caught every institutional hedge. GDX puts. The GLD spreads. The massive SLV put blocks. All of it pointed to the same thesis. |
Nosebleed territory demands risk management. When you're six weeks above expected move, you don't add exposure. You fade the rally. |
The Setup Is Live |
HL gives you the cleanest expression of this trade. Better volatility pricing than the ETFs. Tighter spreads. More leverage to silver's inevitable pullback. |
Buy the 20 put. Sell the 18 put. Risk $73. Target $127. Give it four weeks. |
The gold rally isn't over forever. But after six consecutive weeks of SLV closing above expected move, after miners failed to confirm new highs, after institutions deployed tens of thousands of put contracts in a single session, the next move is lower. |
You don't need to call the top. You just need to position for normal profit-taking after an abnormal run. |
The prints already told you what's coming. The only question is whether you're positioned for it. |
But here's the thing…this is just the tip of the iceberg. |
My Ghost Prints Console scours through thousands of options trades every day, highlighting the ones that we can turn into actionable trades. |
It sounds almost like sorcery. |
But once you watch this video, you'll see how this becomes a quantifiable edge. |
Brandon Chapman, CMT
Creator of Ghost Prints |
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