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Merry Christmas Eve, Garrett here. And I'm sitting here in my Wu-Tang sweater – yes, those are Wu-Tang clan symbols, not chickens. |
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I'm fighting a sinus infection… |
And about to tell you something that'll either offend your sensibilities or make you money. |
Maybe both. |
You want proof that we live in a casino? |
American Bitcoin. ABTC. |
Founded and owned by Trump Brothers. |
There it is. The market laid bare in four letters. |
Now before you get all high-minded about "fundamentals" and "proper valuation," let me ask you something: Are you here to feel good about yourself, or are you here to make money? |
I've been tracking momentum for months, watching this Santa Claus rally push the S&P to levels that would've seemed impossible back in April. |
We're three points away from 7,100 – a number that had people laughing in the spring. |
But here's what nobody wants to admit on Christmas Eve: When they print money, it increases liquidity, reduces bond volatility, and money flows into risk assets. |
It's not complicated. It's not mysterious. And it sure as hell isn't based on traditional metrics. |
The money finds its way into markets. Always. |
So when you see expansion in liquidity globally – the Fed doing it, Bank of Japan doing it, People's Bank of China gearing up for stimulus – where do you think that money goes? Into things connected to power. Into narratives that matter. Into assets where the fix is obvious. |
Cash Rules Everything Around Me |
You know what Wu-Tang taught us? "Cash rules everything around me." C.R.E.A.M. |
The market operates on the same principle, just with more standard deviations. |
I can sit here and walk you through four-sigma reversions all day – and I will, because the math matters. But first, you need to understand the game you're actually playing. |
This isn't your grandfather's value investing. This is liquidity chasing narratives in a system designed to reward proximity to power. |
American Bitcoin isn't moving because of technological breakthroughs or adoption metrics. |
It's moving because of the name on the door. And you know what? That's perfectly fine information to trade on. |
Here's how I think about it, and I'm gonna be brutally honest because it's Christmas Eve and I'm hopped up on cold medicine: If you're gonna speculate – and we're all speculating to some degree in this environment – speculate on the obvious connections. |
When global liquidity expands, money finds three places: Assets already full to the brim like the Mag Seven stocks, debasement plays like silver and gold, and narrative-driven connections to power. |
That third bucket? That's where American Bitcoin lives. |
I hate to say it, but it's just how the world works. You can clutch your pearls about it, or you can position accordingly. |
Don't get me wrong – I'm not abandoning technical analysis because I'm embracing market cynicism. |
The Wu-Tang sweater doesn't replace the standard deviations. But here's what I've learned: The best trades happen when obvious narratives meet solid technical setups. |
ABTC has been setting up these crossovers on the 8-day and 20-day moving averages. |
It wakes up, squeezes, consolidates, then wakes up and squeezes again. Classic pattern. The difference? |
This time it's backed by the most obvious narrative in markets: proximity to presidential power. |
This Isn't Hero Money |
Now, before you mortgage the house on Trump crypto, remember something I tell people about my four-standard-deviation reversions: This isn't hero money. This is dinner money. Maybe good dinner money if you're right, but still dinner money. |
If you own closed-end funds paying 8% dividends, this is where you take that 8% cash flow and try to turn it into 16% or 30%. This is speculation money, not retirement money. |
The casino is obvious. The connections are obvious. The liquidity flows are obvious. What's not obvious is proper position sizing. |
Look, I'd rather be trading in a market where fundamentals mattered and price discovery was real. |
I'd rather be wearing a cardigan instead of a Wu-Tang sweater while explaining normal distributions. But that's not the market we have. |
We have a market where algorithms step in to buy dips, where central banks provide perpetual liquidity support, and where presidential family connections move stock prices. |
You can fight that reality, or you can trade it intelligently with appropriate risk management. |
Me? |
I'm gonna finish explaining standard deviations, keep my position sizes small, and remember that cash rules everything around me – even when it's printed out of thin air and flows into the most obvious places. |
Merry Christmas, everybody. May your trades be profitable and your narratives be obvious. |
The Wu-Tang sweater stays on. |
Stay Positive, |
Garrett Baldwin |
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