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Dear Fellow Traveler: I’m on a Blind Melon kick right now. Totally different vibe than the Wu-Tang Clan… Fun fact: Blind Melon’s former lead singer, Shannon Hoon, was from Lafayette, Indiana… the same town where Axl Rose (Guns & Roses) grew up. Here’s a picture of Hoon singing backup for Rose on the song Don’t Cry. Hoon was probably the only guy who could match Axl’s range in that song…
A year later, Blind Melon blew up with the song No Rain and their self-titled album. Hoon was an exceptional writer and singer. His lyrics in Change are remarkable... I think their best song is Tones of Home. But I’m a weird person when it comes to music taste. The best is not necessarily my favorite. My favorite Blind Melon song is Galaxie… a song that embodies who I am. I’m right at home in my… Honda HR-V. Nothing fancy… Just how I am. Galaxie is a sad song in that Hoon didn’t even remember recording the video, as he was on a downward slope from which he never recovered. Timothy Leary (Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test) plays the wizard in the video. Hoon passed away in October 1995… At… 28. Cocaine overdose. Man… has it been that long? I was asked the other day by a reader to rank my favorite songs… Blind Melon’s Galaxie comes in at 4. And since I’m willing to put myself out there… let’s get after it. As you’ll see, I’m all over the place… Yes, my second favorite song is by Lana Del Ray. It’s the moment the sleighbells drop. Every song has a meaning to me… Why Demon Days at No. 1? I was dancing in the Gulf of Mexico to "Demon Days" by the Gorillaz when I finished my first novel (which, funny enough, I never published). Look at how much enthusiam the choir has singing that song… and look at Damon Albarn singing and celebrating behind the curtain. It’s magical…
I want that feeling he has as that moment, knowing that you have created something great that other people celebrate excessively… 4:15 in this song will always give me chills… it will always put me in a great mood… regardless of how tough times get. Here’s the list…
What’s your ranking? Throw it in the comments section below. I’m always looking for something new… or to revisit things that I might have under-appreciated in the past. Now… let me get to the other things I think… Thing I Think No. 2: We’re In a Financial Crisis, Act Like ItGood grief… It’s the first time that we’ve ever had the markets at all-time highs, and our reversal probabilities are elevated. This means that funds are dancing beside the door right now, and it’s very clear that few people trust this market. As I explained the other day, we’re in a situation where algos and CTAs are driving the bus. And if they don’t like one headline or one earnings report, they will flip the switch and start dumping. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are backed into a corner right now. It’s very clear at the institutional level that leverage is under serious pressure. The FNGD, which is our good friend to help us understand leveraged positions… is screaming at us again from above its 50-day moving average.
Imagine if the Fed weren’t buying $40 billion a month in short-term Treasuries to support bank reserves… imagine if Japan weren’t pumping stimulus. Imagine if we weren’t engaging in the most rampant level of financial engineering since… August? Japan’s financial institutions are facing the same challenges that impacted the British pension system back in 2022. Elevated rates drive down bond prices, creating a situation where institutions can’t sell without incurring major losses. This is what happened to Silicon Valley Bank. But it’s made worse by the fact that the insolvent bank in Japan isn’t MUFG Bank (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group). It’s the Bank of Japan itself. Just Dario points to a $1.9 trillion loss on paper in that market right now. The Fed is already doing what it can to hold the line on our banking system and to help support Repo markets. The question is what sort of break-the-glass plan they now have for Japan. Are we going to buy Japanese bonds? Is Japan going to create a Bank Funding program as we did in 2023? We’ve been kicking the can down the road since August 2024, when the Nikkei crashed… And now we’re in even more treacherous territory. We’re in the middle of a financial crisis. We need to be honest about it… Thing I Think No. 3: China is Driving the Gold Bus…I had the pleasure of joining Michele Steele today at StockTwits for an interview that will come out soon. I’ll share the link when it arrives. She and I had a conversation about China, gold prices, metals, and more… The key thing I want to stress is that we’re not seeing a rally in metals. We’re seeing repricing. Gold, silver, copper, platinum, and even palladium are all moving together, violently, and at the same time, oil is firming despite mixed growth signals. That combination is concerning. It happens when something is wrong underneath the surface. Start with gold. This move is not being driven by ETFs, futures traders, or retail speculation. It’s being driven by physical demand routed through Shanghai. Chinese gold warrants are direct claims on metal sitting in domestic vaults, traded through China’s CIPS system rather than SWIFT. That means central banks and sovereign entities are accumulating gold completely outside Western financial infrastructure. Those buyers don’t trade momentum or hedge pullbacks. They buy more and more to protect their balance sheets. Physical demand is now tight enough to force fast money to chase. Gold’s monthly RSI just hit the highest level ever recorded. That doesn’t mean the move is over. It means it’s unstable. Which is why I was willing to sell the other day… and let the mania subside… Silver is telling you the same story, but with leverage. Silver’s both a monetary metal and an industrial input. When silver moves like this, it usually means the market is hedging against currency debasement and future supply constraints simultaneously. That’s why silver volatility has gone vertical. Copper confirms this, too. Copper doesn’t move out of fear. It moves on Chinese monetary policy, infrastructure, energy, and real demand. When copper breaks to new highs alongside gold, it signals that capital is preparing for large-scale spending on electrification, grid buildouts, and AI infrastructure, while also hedging against monetary risk. Copper has $7 upside, silver somewhere in the $141 range. But it’s going to be violent along the way. I think it’s possible gold slumps hard in the coming days amid ongoing pressure in equities and questions about liquidity in the system. It’s a very important time to learn about technicals, target oversold conditions if they arrive, and reconsider the levels of risk you’re willing to take as a trader and investor. Thing I Think No. 4: This is Funny to MeFinally. I had to say that I saw this headline when I was pulling up the piece on Japan, and I laughed…
The truth is… every central banker engages in this battle. Arty Burns had to go to Yugoslavia for a speech to finally defend his policies in the 1970s. Janet Yellen traveled to Australia last year for the softball interviews of softball interviews. Ben Bernanke wrote a book with a self-aggrandizing title…
Powell will go to Georgetown and teach… or go run a university somewhere… and most definitely write a book. It will have a title that sounds insane to outsiders, like… “Holding the Line…” “Soft Landing…” or… “Whatever It Takes (AGAIN!)” He’ll be on the cover… with his arms crossed, proving that he means business. Can’t wait… We have moved from one crisis to the next over and over again since Powell showed up… and when he departs, it’s going to be fascinating how the Fed adjusts and how the market reacts. One thing is for certain though… they’re going to keep printing money. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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