Oh just another Thursday morning...
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A few will trade the turn.
Last chance before Don goes live at 9:15.
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| | | Good morning, | I spent last night going through every line of the NVIDIA earnings report, and I am bringing you the full breakdown on the show this morning. | The Good, the Meh, and the Whoa. | The short version: $68.1 billion in revenue, 73 percent year-over-year growth, $120 billion in net income for the full year. | The numbers are absurd. I'll go through all of it this morning. | But NVIDIA is not even the scariest story today. | UBS just put out what I would call an apocalyptic note on private credit. Their head of credit strategy, Matthew Mish, is now forecasting private credit defaults to surge to 15%. | A record. The trigger is rapid AI disruption to leveraged tech and business services. This was their tail-risk scenario a month ago. It is now becoming the base case. | On the geopolitical front, the third round of Iran-US nuclear talks in Geneva is producing positive rhetoric. The Omani mediator says both sides have welcomed proposals. Iran met with the IAEA director, which is a critical step for any deal. Crude is down 1.5 percent. But Rubio says Iran is a grave threat, and VP JD Vance says they see evidence of a nuclear weapons program. Two tracks running at the same time. | The Bank of Japan is caught in a tug-of-war with itself. Yesterday, Takaichi nominated doves to the board, and the yen sold off. Today, Governor Ueda and hawk Takata pushed back hard, reiterating the hiking bias. | The Nikkei hit a new all-time high above 59,000 and then pulled back. | This tension is not going away. | NVDA earnings breakdown, private credit crisis, Iran talks, BoJ tug-of-war, and EU sentiment cracking. | Five stories all connected, and I walked through every one of them this morning at 8:45 AM ET on TheoTrade. GDP revision and jobless claims are also out today, and PCE inflation hits tomorrow to close the week. This is a day you want to be locked in. | See you there. | Stay positive, | Garrett |
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