Here's a riddle for you:
A company beats earnings. Revenue surges 70% year-over-year to a record $1.4 billion. They raise guidance. Profit margins nearly quintuple.
The stock pops 11%.
And somehow... Wall Street is STILL arguing about whether this company is overvalued.
Welcome to the Palantir paradox.
Yesterday, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) dropped its Q4 2025 earnings report, and it wasn't just good -- it was historic. The kind of quarter that makes analysts scramble to rewrite their models. | |  | Palantir daily chart showing post-earnings gap up |
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| | THE NUMBERS THAT MATTER:
Revenue hit $1.4 billion for the quarter. That's a 70% jump from the same period last year. For a company that's been around since 2003, growing like a startup in its twenties is... unusual.
But here's the number that really caught my eye: net profit margin climbed to 43.4%.
A year ago? It was 9.2%.
Read that again. They went from keeping roughly 9 cents of every dollar to keeping 43 cents. That's not incremental improvement -- that's a business model transformation happening in real time.
Gross margins expanded too -- 84.6%, up from 78.9%. In plain English: Palantir is making more money from each dollar of revenue while spending less to deliver it. That's the holy grail of scaling.
THE PART NOBODY'S TALKING ABOUT:
Here's what's interesting. Despite all these blowout numbers, PLTR is still down about 15% in 2026.
How does that make sense?
Simple. The stock ran so hard in 2025 (up 81% for the year) that even a monster earnings beat wasn't enough to push it back to all-time highs. Expectations were already priced in -- or so the bears argued.
But here's the lesson: the market doesn't always react to WHAT happened. It reacts to what happened RELATIVE TO WHAT PEOPLE EXPECTED. | | Palantir beat estimates. The stock jumped 11%. But it still hasn't recovered its January losses. That gap between reality and expectations is where real money is made -- or lost.
THE AI FACTOR:
Every analyst note this morning mentioned the same thing: AI demand is accelerating.
Palantir's AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) is becoming the de facto tool for companies that want to deploy AI on their own data without handing everything to a big tech cloud provider. Government contracts are growing. Commercial revenue is surging.
But here's the contrarian thought -- and I want you to sit with this one:
If AI demand is this strong for Palantir, what does that tell us about where businesses are actually SPENDING right now? Not where they SAY they're spending... but where the purchase orders are flowing?
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| THE BIGGER PICTURE:
Yesterday's market told a split story. The Dow hit a fresh record intraday before pulling back. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.4%.
Palantir rallied while the rest of tech sank. | |  | S&P 500 daily chart showing the broader market pullback for contrast |
| |  | Nasdaq ETF chart showing tech weakness vs PLTR strength |
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That kind of divergence -- one stock zigging while the sector zags -- is a signal. It means the market is getting selective. It's no longer enough to be a "tech stock." You need to show the receipts.
And right now, the companies showing real AI revenue (not just AI promises) are the ones getting rewarded.
So what comes next?
Palantir raised its full-year 2026 guidance. Management is clearly confident. But with shares still trading at a premium that makes some analysts uncomfortable, the question becomes: at what point does the growth justify the price?
That's a question I'll be watching closely. Because the answer won't just tell us about Palantir -- it'll tell us about how the entire market values AI in 2026.
More on that Thursday.
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