Don here...
Walmart trades at a 45x PE ratio. Nvidia trades at roughly the same multiple.
One sells groceries. The other powers the AI revolution.
If you still believe fundamentals drive this market in the short term, that single comparison should give you pause.
It gave me pause when I pulled it up this morning.
Caterpillar is even worse…
The stock is approaching $800. Up over 100% from its recent lows.
Tech companies have been buying their equipment for data center buildouts, and now money managers are inventing stories to justify owning an industrial stock at a 40 forward PE with a 90 RSI.
Here is the scary part...
Implied volatility on Caterpillar is going up alongside the stock price.
That is a warning shot. In normal markets, volatility drops when prices rise.
When both go up together, somebody is buying protection while chasing the move higher.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- Why almost every mega-cap tech stock is already in corrective territory. Amazon down 20%. Microsoft down 28%. Google off 14%. Meta off 15%. The S&P is still at 6850 because of rotations and a handful of names holding it up.
- The Fiverr collapse that shows what AI is actually doing to companies. From $336 to $11. Gig workers worldwide relied on that platform for income. AI has effectively destroyed their business model in real time.
- How oil's implied volatility reveals more than the price chart. Everyone sees the 3% move and panics about war. But IV was higher two weeks ago. Markets react less the second and third time they see the same threat.
- Why liquidity has concentrated so severely that most stocks are untradeable. Caterpillar options have $2 wide bid-ask spreads on monthly expirations. Deere has earnings tomorrow and there's not enough open interest to fill a single butterfly.
I'm not positioning beyond intraday trades right now.
The S&P has been stuck in a tight range for months.
That kind of compression builds energy. When the range breaks, the move will be significant.
The question is not whether it breaks. The question is which direction.
→ Watch the full session where I break down why the market's calm surface is hiding real structural risk underneath
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
10 SIGNALS. 8 BOTTOMS. 100% WIN RATE.
I built an Indicator that only fires 10-12 times a year. Not daily noise. Just the exact moments when selling pressure exhausts itself and the market is ready to turn.
Last year, it flagged 10 reset windows. 8 aligned with short-term lows. Every structured trade placed during those windows closed profitable.
I'm showing the full framework live this tomorrow at 1 PM ET. Free training, no replay.
👉 Save your spot now
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