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This Week's Exclusive Story Meta Soars After-Hours, Forecasting Fastest Growth Since 2021Reported by Leo Miller. Published: 1/29/2026. 
Article Highlights - Meta Platforms’ Q4 results beat expectations, and its Q1 guidance points to faster growth than analysts anticipated.
- Stronger engagement and rising ad impressions suggest the company’s AI-driven ad tools are translating into revenue momentum.
- Investors largely shrugged off higher 2026 spending plans as growth regained the spotlight.
After months under pressure, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) may have shifted the narrative around its business. In October, the Magnificent Seven stock plunged 11% after its Q3 earnings report, amid concerns about out-of-control artificial intelligence (AI) spending. Meta appears to have redeemed itself with its Q4 2025 earnings report, released on Jan. 28. The stock was up roughly 8% in after-hours trading as of 7:00 p.m. ET. The results are forcing skeptics to reassess the outlook, with growth taking center stage over spending worries. Meta Posts Strong Beats and Stellar Guidance In Q4, Meta reported revenue of $59.9 billion, up about 24% year-over-year, comfortably above estimates of $58.3 billion (21% growth). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.88 also exceeded expectations — up nearly 11% from a year ago versus estimates of $8.16. The most notable figure was guidance for Q1 2026. At the midpoint, Meta expects $55 billion in revenue, well above the $51.3 billion analysts expected. That midpoint implies revenue growth of about 30% next quarter — the fastest quarterly growth rate since Q3 2021. That acceleration is exactly what shareholders wanted to see and is further evidence that Meta’s AI investments are beginning to pay off. Among key operating metrics, growth in ad impressions delivered stood out. Ad impressions delivered is the number of ads shown across Meta’s platforms, and it rose 18% — the strongest gain in nearly two years. CFO Susan Li attributed this to stronger engagement and user growth; for example, Instagram Reels watch time was up 30% year-over-year, a clear sign of rising engagement. Higher engagement suggests Meta’s AI-powered recommendation and ranking models are improving. As those models get better, users spend more time in Meta’s apps, which enables the company to show more ads. Markets Brush Off Higher-than-Expected Spending Forecasts Expectations about rising capital expenditures (CapEx) have weighed on the stock in recent months. Meta’s 2026 CapEx guidance, however, came in well above consensus. For 2026, Meta expects CapEx of $115 billion to $135 billion. Wall Street had been modeling roughly $110 billion. The midpoint of $125 billion represents about a 73% increase versus 2025 CapEx of $72.2 billion. Meta also forecast total expenses of $162 billion to $169 billion for 2026, above estimates near $150 billion. Reading between the lines reveals an important detail about the 2026 outlook. Management said, "Despite the meaningful step up in infrastructure investment, in 2026 we expect to deliver operating income that is above 2025 operating income." Note that: Revenue = Operating Income + Total Expenses Meta expects operating income in 2026 to be at least as high as in 2025 and has provided expense guidance, so we can back into a revenue estimate. Meta generated $83.3 billion in operating income in 2025, and the high end of its 2026 expense guidance is $169 billion. Adding those gives about $252.3 billion, a rough full-year 2026 revenue estimate. That would imply roughly 25.5% growth versus 2025 revenue of $201 billion — well above the ~18.3% growth analysts had been forecasting for 2026. Growth Overshadows Spending as Meta’s AI Strategy Gains Traction Although Meta’s elevated expense guidance dominated headlines, the company offset that concern with very strong growth projections. Critics note Meta has not produced a top-tier general-purpose AI model, but the company’s commercial results are making a different argument. Meta’s AI strategy appears to be accelerating growth in its core business — social media advertising. After a difficult stretch, Meta Platforms may have delivered exactly what it needed to reignite investor optimism.
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