Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club Publisher's Note: Oil just crossed $100 for the first time since 2022. Our colleague Marc Lichtenfeld at The Oxford Club called it on February 20. He said if oil got above $65 it was going to $80, then $95, then $100. Just 17 days later, he was right. The question is what that means for your portfolio. Marc lays out the answer below. And invites you to a unique opportunity here. — Stephen Prior, Publisher
Dear Reader, On February 20, I told readers of my Technical Pattern Profits VIP Trading Service that if oil rose above $65, it would quickly reach $80. After it reached $80, I said it would go on to $95. Just 17 days later, oil crossed $100. I am the Chief Income Strategist at The Oxford Club, and I have been tracking energy markets for decades. I can tell you this: there have only been three other times in the past 44 years that oil spiked above $100 per barrel. It happened in 2008, from 2011 to 2014, and in 2022, after the pandemic. That obviously causes pain at the pump and raises inflation, as everything gets more costly to ship. But what does it mean for stocks? Five Times Oil Spiked. Here Is What Happened Next. In 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices quickly doubled from around $20 per barrel to more than $40. During that move, the S&P 500 had a nearly identical inverse reaction. Nine years later, as dot-com mania peaked, oil surged from about $10 per barrel to nearly $40. As oil rose, the S&P, caught in the final throes of dot-com mania, did not slide immediately. It continued to rise even though the rally was running out of gas. Just as oil peaked, the market began its plunge. $100 Oil The first time oil broke above $100 was January 2, 2008. As oil began its rise, the market did not drop immediately. But that $100 level proved too much. The market melted down. Oil ascending to $145 added more pressure on stocks. The global recession brought oil back in check. But it surged again when the Arab Spring uprisings began in December 2010. Oil bounced between roughly $75 and $110 for the next three years. After the financial crisis, stocks recovered even as oil prices doubled between 2009 and 2011 and remained elevated for years. The S&P continued higher despite the high price of oil. The COVID crash in 2020 obliterated both oil prices and stock prices. They quickly recovered together. But when oil hit $100, stocks topped out, and the 2022 bear market began. | 
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