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Chris Rowe
3 Stocks Sending a Strong Signal With Massive Buybacks
Authored by Leo Miller. Posted: 3/9/2026.
Key Points
- Cheniere, Fair Isaac, and Zillow all expanded buyback authorizations, signaling confidence and a stronger commitment to capital returns.
- Cheniere stands out for the sheer scope and duration of its repurchase capacity, giving it unusually large flexibility to shrink the share count over time.
- Fair Isaac is leaning on buybacks as shares digest policy-related headlines, while Zillow is using repurchases to capitalize on a depressed share price amid housing and regulatory uncertainty.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Three key stocks in leading positions across their industries just announced substantial buyback programs. One energy name now has repurchase capacity nearing 20% of its market capitalization, giving it significant flexibility to return capital to shareholders. That company, along with two others, is signaling strong confidence through these latest buyback announcements.
LNG Plans +$10 Billion in Buybacks Through 2030
Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) is one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas. The company acts as a middleman, taking natural gas from producers, liquefying it, and finding buyers. Liquefaction enables transportation of the gas on ships or trucks rather than by pipeline, allowing buyers and sellers to connect even when they are on opposite sides of the world.
This stock is mispriced by billions (Ad)
America, 1781—the war for independence is grinding on with soldiers marching barefoot through the snow, paid in scraps of paper called Continentals that no one wants because inflation has ravaged its value. Desperate soldiers, farmers, and merchants sell them for pennies on the dollar, but a few contrarians believed America would win and quietly bought up these discarded scraps, and when Alexander Hamilton announced the new government would redeem them in full, speculators who bought continentals made returns of 100-to-1 in one of the most asymmetric trades in financial history. What Erez Kalir and I have discovered is a modern-day equivalent—a misunderstood, grossly mispriced currency asset hiding inside a boring blue-chip company, mispriced not by a few points but by tens of billions, where the asset Wall Street is overlooking is worth more than the entire legacy business itself.
See the full story in our latest broadcast nowS&P Global notes that liquefied natural gas imports to Europe surged 30% year-over-year (YOY) in 2025, with the United States supplying over 77% of those imports. Over the past five years, Cheniere Energy shares have benefited from strong demand, rising more than 250%. The energy stock fell significantly in the second half of 2025 but has rebounded strongly in 2026 and sits near its all-time high.
Demonstrating conviction in its outlook, Cheniere repurchased $2.7 billion of stock over the last 12 months (LTM), its largest amount ever. The company will continue at a brisk pace, recently boosting its buyback capacity to $10.2 billion — roughly 20% of its about $52 billion market capitalization. The firm called the move a "clear mark of confidence," and it gives Cheniere the ability to substantially reduce its outstanding share count through 2030.
FICO: Financials and Buybacks Are Up as Shares Fall
Fair Isaac (NYSE: FICO) is the dominant U.S. provider of consumer credit scores. Its FICO Score is widely used as the de facto metric for assessing borrower risk across many types of loans, from mortgages to credit cards. FICO shares have been hit hard over the past year and are down about 30% from their 52-week high reached in May 2025.
A large part of the stock's decline followed changes at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). FHFA Director Bill Pulte criticized the company's price hikes for mortgage application credit scores, and the FHFA subsequently removed the requirement that loans acquired by Freddie Mac (OTCMKTS: FMCC) and Fannie Mae (OTCMKTS: FNMA) use the FICO score, a direct challenge to Fair Isaac's near-monopoly.
Despite that regulatory headwind, Fair Isaac has continued to grow and boost profitability. Revenue has increased by 13% or more YOY in each of the last four quarters, and the company's adjusted operating margin rose by over 300 basis points in fiscal 2025.
With the stock trading lower, Fair Isaac has leaned into buybacks. The firm repurchased more than $1.5 billion of stock in the LTM, near a five-year high, and recently announced a $1.5 billion buyback authorization, equal to about 4.3% of its roughly $35 billion market capitalization. That gives the company meaningful capacity to repurchase shares it likely views as undervalued.
Zillow's Buyback Capacity Exceeds 10% With Shares Down Big
Next up is Zillow Group (NASDAQ: ZG), known for its leading platform that connects home buyers and renters with sellers and landlords. Zillow shares have fallen sharply over the past six months, down more than 45% from their 52-week high. The weakness reflects a combination of a soft housing market and an ongoing FTC investigation.
The FTC alleges that Zillow and Redfin illegally stifled competition after Zillow paid Redfin $100 million to re-host its rental listings, resulting in significant overlap between the two companies' listings. The FTC says that arrangement was anti-competitive; Redfin argues it was necessary because lacking paid independent listings made its sales force uneconomical and the partnership helped address that problem.
Still, Zillow delivered solid revenue growth of 15% in 2025 and improved its operating margin. The company has also ramped buybacks in 2026, spending $626 million through early March — nearly as much as the $670 million repurchased in all of 2025.
Zillow has replenished its buyback capacity, boosting authorization to $1.3 billion, which is roughly 11% of its about $11 billion market capitalization. The company noted on its February earnings call that it is taking advantage of the "recent market dislocation to buy back shares at what we believe is an attractive price."
Zillow Stands Out for Its Upside Potential
Overall, these three companies are signaling confidence by increasing repurchase capacity. Among them, Wall Street analysts see the most upside in Zillow. The MarketBeat consensus 12-month price target near $78 implies about 66% upside. That said, price targets were trimmed substantially after the company's latest earnings report.
The Quiet Retail Compounder Investors Keep Buying on Every Dip
Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 3/10/2026.
Key Points
- Casey’s General Stores’ latest earnings report showed modest revenue growth but strong margin expansion, driving outsized earnings gains.
- Management raised profit guidance, and steady cash flow supports dividends and ongoing buybacks despite a softer revenue outlook.
- Analyst and institutional positioning remains bullish, and the recent pullback may be a buy-the-dip entry for long-term holders.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) is a long-term retail holding company that has historically rewarded a buy-the-dip approach. Casey's is a high-quality operator that internally funds growth, consolidates in a still-fractured market, generates strong cash flow, and returns capital to shareholders. Together, these factors have produced a steady uptrend in the share price, as seen in the stock price chart. As of early March 2026, CASY is pulling back and setting up a potential buying opportunity.
Mixed Results Spark Pullback in Casey’s Shares
This stock is mispriced by billions (Ad)
America, 1781—the war for independence is grinding on with soldiers marching barefoot through the snow, paid in scraps of paper called Continentals that no one wants because inflation has ravaged its value. Desperate soldiers, farmers, and merchants sell them for pennies on the dollar, but a few contrarians believed America would win and quietly bought up these discarded scraps, and when Alexander Hamilton announced the new government would redeem them in full, speculators who bought continentals made returns of 100-to-1 in one of the most asymmetric trades in financial history. What Erez Kalir and I have discovered is a modern-day equivalent—a misunderstood, grossly mispriced currency asset hiding inside a boring blue-chip company, mispriced not by a few points but by tens of billions, where the asset Wall Street is overlooking is worth more than the entire legacy business itself.
See the full story in our latest broadcast nowCasey’s reported a solid fiscal third quarter, even though revenue missed the consensus. Revenue rose 0.5%, supported by higher store counts and improved margins across both segments — a reminder of Casey’s strength in managing costs, driving growth, and generating profitable cash flow.
Segment-wise, Inside sales were the standout, up 4% on a comparable-store basis, led by a 3.3% increase in grocery sales and a 4.7% gain in prepared foods. Gasoline sales also rose 0.4%, aided by a 4.6-cent (11.2%) increase in fuel margin. Rewards club membership exceeded 10 million members for the first time, another sign of business momentum.
Margins were the real highlight. The strong Inside performance and higher fuel margins improved results throughout the income statement: EBITDA rose 27.5%, net income climbed 49.3%, and GAAP earnings increased about 50% — all well ahead of top-line growth. Management raised profit guidance and expects margin strength to continue through year-end. The downside: the 2026 revenue outlook is below consensus, but that shortfall is unlikely to change the long-term case.
Casey’s Capital Returns Offset Revenue Miss
While the revenue miss and softer guidance point to weaker-than-expected traffic, they are largely offset by margin strength, cash flow, and a clear capacity to return capital. Casey’s remains well-positioned to pay dividends and buy back shares. Margin improvement supports the reliability of distributions and underpins future growth prospects.
The dividend yields roughly 0.34% — modest, but well-supported at about 10% of projected earnings — which reinforces a buy-and-hold case. Casey’s has increased its payout for more than 25 consecutive years, qualifying it as a Dividend Aristocrat.
Share repurchases in fiscal 2026 are modest but meaningful. Casey’s resumed buybacks after pausing to conserve cash for an acquisition and reduced its share count year over year in Q3 (down about 0.3%). At the Q3 pace, the company has enough authorization left for roughly three more quarters and could expand the program in FY2027 if no acquisition targets emerge.
Casey’s balance sheet reflects the accretive impact of its operations and the Fike acquisition. At quarter-end, cash and assets increased while liabilities rose more modestly. Long-term debt fell, equity rose roughly 9.8%, and leverage remains low — long-term debt, including lease obligations, is under 1x equity — leaving the company financially flexible.
Institutions and Analysts Provide a Tailwind
Institutional ownership and analyst sentiment are supportive and point to higher prices over time. MarketBeat tracks 14 analysts who rate the stock a Moderate Buy; the buy-side bias is 57%, and the price-target trend is upward. The consensus target has lagged recent price action but is up more than 50% on a trailing-12-month basis, with recent revisions pushing it toward the high end of the range. The high-end $725 target was set the day before the Q3 release, and post-report activity supports that view. That top target implies at least roughly 10% upside, and continued revisions could lift targets further.
Institutional trends are equally constructive: institutions own more than 85% of the stock and have been net buyers for six consecutive quarters, with activity ramping to record levels in Q1 2026. In Q1, buyers purchased more than $2 for every $1 sold, creating a positive balance heading into the report. The likely outcome is continued support from institutions and analysts, who may buy into any post-release dip.
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