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AeroVironment Touches Down On Value Opportunity
Written by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 3/12/2026.
Key Points
- AeroVironment faces near-term pressure from the SCAR contract ending, but analysts still see meaningful upside from current levels.
- AVAV’s chart suggests a possible hard bottom near $200, with key resistance levels at $225, $240, and $250.
- Strong institutional ownership and continued contract execution and scaling efforts could help restore momentum in 2026.
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AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) faces headwinds in 2026, including the end of its SCAR contract and the resulting hit to market sentiment. Even with analysts cutting targets and guidance coming in below expectations, this defense company offers value to investors willing to buy at long-term lows and wait for traction to be regained. It remains well-positioned with a battle‑proven portfolio, a still-solid (if diminished) backlog, and a healthy balance sheet that supports reinvestment and improved shareholder value. The main question is timing — a rebound could happen sooner than the guidance suggests.
Analysts are trimming targets following the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings update, but that is the worst of the reaction to the report.
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Add yourself to the distribution list here.The reductions were expected given the likely loss of the SCAR business, but the market has arguably overreacted.
The six revisions initially tracked by MarketBeat set a new low target, yet still imply upside. More importantly, the average of the updated targets projects roughly 30% upside, with larger gains possible at the high end.
Other indicators — increasing analyst coverage, a steady Moderate Buy rating, and an 86% Buy-side bias — point to a more constructive tone and a potential catalyst. If AeroVironment can regain momentum and expand into commercial markets, analysts may raise price targets later in the year, which could spur bullish market activity.
AeroVironment Price Action Shows Hard Bottom at $200
There is always a risk of lower prices, but for AVAV that risk appears limited. The chart price action shows a technical bottom near $200, supported by price‑volume patterns and indicator divergences. The increased volume on recent price action suggests accumulation after the March 2 decline tied to the SCAR news, while momentum divergences indicate bears are losing control.
The risk of renewed selling exists, but early signs point the other way. The earnings release triggered a pre-market selloff that met buying at the open, and the resulting technical picture — including divergences in stochastic and MACD — suggests the stock is coiled and ready to bounce higher. The remaining question is how far it can run and what will drive the move.
Key resistance levels to watch are near $225, $240 and $250, with $250 acting as an important pivot that aligns with a long-term uptrend broken in early March. If the stock fails to reclaim $250, any uptrend may be muted — the market could top out around $280 and then trade sideways until a stronger catalyst appears. The downside scenario would see a correction back toward recent lows before sustainable momentum returns. In a bull case that clears the uptrend line, $280 still represents a potential ceiling.
Institutions Support AeroVironment Stock Market
Institutional activity will be a deciding factor, and it was bullish ahead of the release. MarketBeat data show institutions own more than 85% of the stock and have been net buyers for 10 consecutive quarters, with buying continuing into early Q1 2026. It is likely they will keep accumulating while the shares trade at long-term lows, which should show up in the March data.
AeroVironment's fiscal Q3 results disappointed on both the top and bottom lines, but the bar was unusually high and some factors were beyond management's control. Outside of those misses, the quarter was otherwise robust, with revenue growth topping 140% year over year and solid profits.
Guidance essentially held, leaving revenue and earnings targets below analysts' prior expectations, but underlying metrics remain healthy. The company forecasts only slightly slower growth than the 135% analysts had modeled, and the profit range brackets consensus, suggesting management may be conservative.
Potential catalysts for AVAV include continued integration of BlueHalo, sustained demand for drone products, execution on the existing backlog and the company's demonstrated ability to scale production. Management is also pursuing commercial applications for its platforms — targeting inspection, precision agriculture, surveillance and tracking — which would diversify revenue beyond defense.
MarketBeat Week in Review – 03/16 - 03/20
Written by MarketBeat Staff. Article Posted: 3/21/2026.
As the calendar turns to spring, investors are hoping the March madness in stocks will end — they may have to wait. This week, all the major indexes closed below their 200-day moving averages, a technical indicator that often signals growing bearish investor psychology.
That sentiment is being fed by government data showing inflation remains stubbornly high. That is likely to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, and recent chatter even includes the possibility of hikes.
Investors have been willing to overlook troublesome data before. What's different now is the overlay of the conflict with Iran. Questions linger about how long it will last and whether it will escalate — answers that will help determine energy prices, a direct driver of consumer sentiment.
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Get the full story here nowKey Points
- Spring has sprung, but will it help shake off the downturn in stocks that is now in its fourth week?
- Economic indicators show inflation is beginning to move higher, but the central focus continues to be on potential escalation in the U.S. conflict with Iran.
- Volatility will continue, but MarketBeat analysts can still point out opportunities.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon's AI Masterplan
Expect more volatility. But there are opportunities amid the chaos, and MarketBeat analysts can help you find them. Here are some of the most popular articles from this week.
Articles by Thomas Hughes
Retail stocks continue to be among the most closely watched this earnings season. This week, Thomas Hughes analyzed recent reports from discount retailers Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Ollie's Bargain Outlets (NASDAQ: OLLI). The reports were similar: positive current-quarter results but cautious guidance.
Dollar Tree's catalysts come from restructuring and remodeling, while with Ollie's the story is expansion. Hughes lays out the fundamental and technical case for why each stock looks like compelling value at current prices.
Then there's Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO), the manufacturer of small modular reactors, which reported earnings this week. Hughes noted that investors appear to be putting in a bottom after the stock's recent sell-off — a development that could lead to strong upside if the company executes its plans.
Articles by Sam Quirke
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) is bucking the sell-off in technology stocks. This week, Sam Quirke explained the technical backdrop showing why investors may believe the post-earnings CapEx sell-off was overdone.
Buy the rumor, sell the reality? That seems to be the case with PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL). The stock rallied sharply on takeover rumors, then gave back gains just as fast — a move that, as Quirke noted, is reviving concerns about PayPal's relevance in a crowded market.
Quirke also covered the surge in Cloudflare Inc. (NYSE: NET) stock on news it might create a stablecoin. He explained why the rapid growth of agentic AI makes this a logical move, while noting it's still some time away from becoming a reality: Cloudflare's stablecoin: real catalyst or short-term hype?
Articles by Chris Markoch
Investors like stock splits, even if only for psychological reasons. After several high-profile splits in 2025, additional companies could be candidates to split their stock in 2026 based solely on price. This week, Chris Markoch highlighted three stocks to watch.
Congressional trading hasn't been banned, so investors still watch what stocks members of Congress are buying. Markoch pointed out five stocks that lawmakers have traded in the last 90 days.
It's not surprising to hear about another high-profile deal from Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR), but the company's recent partnership with NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) should not be quickly dismissed.
Articles by Ryan Hasson
When markets move lower, it can help to ride the hot hand. This week, Ryan Hasson spotlighted the three best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 and explained why each may have more room to run.
In broad selloffs, even quality stocks can go on sale. Hasson pointed to five large-cap stocks that are oversold despite solid fundamentals — it may be time to get out the shopping list.
The downturn in tech has much to do with valuation and fears of unrealistic growth projections, but that's not the case for the two technology stocks that are holding their own in a volatile market.
Articles by Leo Miller
The AI-infrastructure trade has many layers. That's a big reason shares of Credo Technology (NASDAQ: CRDO) and Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) have moved higher. Leo Miller highlighted those stocks and explained the dynamics likely to push them further.
Sticking with under-the-radar names, Miller explained the role Keysight Technologies (NYSE: KEYS) plays in the AI and defense spending boom, and warned investors to consider valuation concerns before getting involved.
What's in a name? In the case of Everpure (NYSE: PSTG), it's quite a lot. The company formerly known as Pure Storage has rebranded to reflect a shift toward an intelligent data-management platform rather than just data storage. But Miller noted that the post-earnings drop shows what investors really care about.
Articles by Nathan Reiff
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is one of the more enticing names in quantum computing. Nathan Reiff explained why IBM's quantum research poses a challenge to D-Wave, not only because of technology but also because of balance-sheet advantages.
There seems to be a new headline about GLP-1 drugs every week, which can be more challenging for investors than patients. Reiff highlighted three players in the GLP-1 space that investors should watch closely.
Stocks and bonds often have an inverse relationship. The bond market may not be on fire, but Reiff wrote about two active bond ETFs that are off to a strong start in 2026.
Articles by Dan Schmidt
Volatile markets can create opportunities for momentum traders comfortable with risk. This week, Dan Schmidt went to the charts to highlight technical indicators pointing to a bullish reversal in three well-known stocks.
Much of the talk about the Strait of Hormuz focuses on oil, but Schmidt pointed out it's also a key artery for the plant nutrients used in fertilizer. That's creating a supply-demand imbalance that could send three fertilizer stocks soaring.
Articles by Jeffrey Neal Johnson
In addition to oil and fertilizer, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply chain for chemical stocks. Jeffrey Neal Johnson explained what's happening in the strait and why it's bullish for two chemical stocks that also have attractive defensive qualities.
The AI revolution is happening fast. Johnson argued investors should look beyond chipmakers and data-center names and consider retailers, since many retailers are using AI in their supply chains, naming two top candidates to consider.
Good enough hasn't been good enough for many companies this earnings season, but a substantial beat gets attention. That was the case with El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO). Johnson highlighted the company's strong earnings report and why it is well-positioned in the fast-casual market.
Articles by Jennifer Ryan Woods
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is an example of a quality company operating in a tough environment. The housing and renovation market is still weak, but Jennifer Ryan Woods pointed out that analysts remain bullish on HD stock, and even a modest recovery could reward investors who buy on weakness.
Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W) has taken investors on a tariff-induced roller coaster. After a nearly 500% climb, the stock is pulling back. Woods explained why analysts are scrutinizing the company's mixed earnings and why investors may want to do the same.
Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE) has become a complicated trade after issuing cautious guidance for 2026, which has prompted investors to rethink margin expectations. Woods analyzed why the stock looks attractive and also outlined the reasons for concern: Expedia: where does it go next?
Articles by Peter Frank
Interactive Brokers Group (NASDAQ: IBKR) is up more than 50% in the past 12 months. Peter Frank explained why the fast-growing brokerage may continue to outperform, while also pointing out potential headwinds if interest rates fall or trading activity slows.
Like many financial-services companies, Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF) enjoyed a strong 2025. But as Frank noted, "...when you play the market with a stock that's dependent on the market, there's always risk." Read his article to decide if SF stock can fill a spot in your portfolio.
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