Dear Reader,
If you've noticed that tech is slipping…
While commodities are surging…
And geopolitical conflicts are intensifying…
You may already be connecting the dots.
From the skirmish in Ukraine to the conflict with Iran, the world is experiencing chaos and instability in a way we haven’t seen in decades.
According to legendary forecaster and former CNBC co-host JC Parets, “It’s part of a predictable cycle.”
Parets — who famously called the crash of 2008 as well as the exact start of the 2022 bull market — calls it the Chaos Cycle.
We saw this force play out from 1999 to 2011.
And we saw another cycle from 1968 to 1981, a period that also saw intense conflict in the Middle East.
During these periods, growth stocks gradually stall…
While investments tied to real assets can soar 20x… even 30x.
JC recently filmed a short video explaining the cycle — and how he recommends playing it.
Good investing,
Pete Campbell
Publisher, TrendLabs
These 2 Bitcoin ETFs Are Seeing Inflows for the First Time in Months
Authored by Nathan Reiff. Posted: 3/23/2026.
Key Points
- With Bitcoin trading near one-year lows of around $69,000, institutional investors have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into BTC-focused ETFs in recent weeks.
- iShares Bitcoin Trust has remained the dominant spot Bitcoin ETF by assets and liquidity, while Fidelity’s fund offers a smaller but comparable alternative.
- Expense ratios, liquidity, and daily flow data matter more than headlines, especially amid geopolitics and ongoing crypto volatility.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
After peaking above $126,000 last fall, Bitcoin is entering the second quarter of 2026 near a one-year low of roughly $69,000. The relatively lower price may have drawn institutional investors back to digital tokens, even as other parts of traditional markets faced stresses related to the Iran war. Indeed, institutions poured more than $458 million into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in a single day in early March.
This marks a reversal from the cryptocurrency fund outflows that dominated the first two months of the year, and it happened with little fanfare as investors focused on oil and gasoline prices, renewed inflation concerns, and geopolitical developments. Retail investors may wonder whether the funds that attracted most of this institutional attention—including the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (BATS: FBTC)—remain attractive after the flow reversal.
IBIT's Dominance in the Bitcoin ETF Space Becomes More Evident
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Click here for all the details.Following roughly $1.8 billion of outflows in January and February and a steep price decline, crypto investors looked pessimistic entering March, so the sudden shift to inflows was surprising.
Most of those inflows went to IBIT, suggesting large institutional investors are buying BTC through what is arguably the market's most popular Bitcoin fund.
For retail investors, it can be tempting to follow institutions that recently moved hundreds of millions of dollars into IBIT. The implication of this collective investment is that a significant chunk of Bitcoin has shifted toward long-term institutional holders—which could tighten available supply for other BTC investors.
IBIT is an attractive option for those seeking indirect exposure to Bitcoin. It carries a modest expense ratio of 0.12%, which is the trade-off for not having to manage and store BTC directly. The fund is immensely popular, with about $58 billion in assets under management (AUM) and a one-month average trading volume above 63 million shares.
A Smaller, More Expensive Alternative—But Variety May Be Worthwhile
FBTC is much smaller than IBIT—about $13 billion in AUM and roughly 5.8 million shares in one-month average trading volume—and it is also more expensive, with an expense ratio of 0.25%. As a result, FBTC has drawn substantially lower institutional inflows than IBIT, which is unsurprising. Still, FBTC added $48 million in a single day in early March, a potential sign of support from retirement account providers and other institutional clients of Fidelity.
The fact that FBTC also received inflows, albeit smaller, suggests the renewed interest in BTC may be broader and more durable. Fundamentally, FBTC offers a similar proposition to IBIT: Bitcoin exposure with custodial backing.
Despite FBTC's higher cost and lower liquidity, it may appeal to investors who want to increase Bitcoin exposure without relying on a single provider. Because both funds track the spot price of Bitcoin, their performance should be effectively the same (aside from differences in expense ratios). Holding both funds instead of just one can also reduce operational concentration risk.
Investors may also view the institutional flows as a reason to consider alternative ETFs focused on cryptocurrencies. A new BlackRock fund—the iShares Staked Ethereum (ETHB)—launched in March and is iShares' first fund with a staking-yield component, which may appeal to investors seeking passive income potential. At the same time, continued geopolitical instability could push Bitcoin and other crypto prices in either direction, and investors should remember that risks and uncertainty remain.
For cautious investors, the recent surge in institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs suggests monitoring fund flows regularly. After a period when institutions largely stepped back from cryptocurrency funds, the current trend may signal a broader shift back toward bullishness.
Home Depot Stock Keeps Falling—Analysts Say the Upside Is Still There
Submitted by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Published: 3/14/2026.
Key Points
- Despite a sluggish housing market and weak consumer sentiment that have slowed renovation spending, Home Depot has remained resilient, allowing it to report results ahead of expectations, renewing optimism on Wall Street.
- The company’s growing focus on higher-margin professional customers has helped offset softer do-it-yourself demand, as contractors tend to spend more per visit and make repeat purchases, providing more consistent revenue during periods of weak housing activity.
- Shares have fallen more than 12% over the past month as housing concerns weigh on the sector, yet analysts remain optimistic, with an average price target of $416, more than 20% above the current price.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
A sluggish housing market and weak consumer sentiment have been major headwinds for The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), as homeowners pull back on large renovation projects that are a key driver of the company's sales. Despite the difficult backdrop, the home-improvement giant has remained surprisingly resilient.
The company's shift toward professional contractors rather than do-it-yourself customers has helped drive growth. That strategy supported a fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report that beat expectations and renewed optimism on Wall Street, which sees substantial upside from current levels. Still, the stock has struggled as housing-market concerns continue to outweigh analysts' optimism and the company's solid fundamentals.
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Why is the White House suddenly building a new "Fort Knox?" Hidden inside this fortress lies a critical new resource Moody's calls "the new oil." Demand is doubling every 6 months, and Fox News is calling it the "new arms race." On April 20, a major event could ignite a handful of under-the-radar stocks, setting off what could be biggest commodity boom in history.
Click here for all the details.Shares were recently trading around $339, down about 13% over the last month and roughly 23% from the 52-week high reached in mid-September. Could the pullback signal the stock is setting up for a rebound in the coming months? It could—particularly if mortgage rates tick lower or the spring home-selling season proves strong.
Housing Market Weakness Continues to Weigh on Renovation Spending
Persistently high mortgage rates have created a lock-in effect, with homeowners reluctant to sell and take on higher borrowing costs. That has kept home sales sluggish and weighed on renovation spending, which typically rises when housing turnover increases. Weak consumer confidence has also prompted many households to rein in spending on big home-improvement projects.
On the company's quarterly earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said, "Housing turnover has remained at historical lows since 2023, which has significantly reduced demand for projects and other purchases associated with buying and selling a home." He added, "Our customers also tell us they have concerns over general economic uncertainty, including inflation, growing job concerns, and higher financing costs."
Despite these headwinds, the company delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter, released on Feb. 24, were $2.72—20 cents ahead of the consensus estimate—and revenue of $38.2 billion topped analysts' estimate of $38.01 billion. The company reiterated cautious fiscal 2026 guidance, anticipating continued pressure on housing activity, but increased its quarterly dividend by 1.3% to $2.33 per share, a sign it expects to keep generating strong cash flow.
Focus on Professional Contractors Provides Stability
Home Depot's pivot toward higher-margin professional customers was a key growth driver during the quarter, and management expects that trend to continue. Pros are typically more consistent than DIY shoppers, make repeat purchases, and often spend more per visit.
To better serve this segment, the company has expanded distribution of specialty building products through two acquisitions and invested in digital tools to improve the Pro customer experience, including a real-time delivery tracker for large orders and an AI tool that generates material lists and project quotes. This pivot is not unique to Home Depot—rival Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) has adopted a similar strategy—though Home Depot's scale gives it an advantage.
Analysts Remain Bullish Even as the Stock Pulls Back
Analysts appeared encouraged by Home Depot's earnings and the company's ability to navigate the challenging housing market, with 12 analysts raising their price targets following the report. The average 12-month target is $416, more than 22% above the current share price. The consensus rating remains Moderate Buy, with 20 analysts recommending Buy, 12 suggesting Hold, and one advising Sell. Short interest has also declined recently, with less than 1% of the float sold short, suggesting investors are not heavily betting against the company.
Despite the potential upside, the stock has continued to fall—down about 5% over the last five days and roughly 13% over the last month. Home Depot is not alone: the weak housing market has pressured the entire sector. Shares of Lowe's are also down roughly 5% over the last five days and about 16% over the month, while Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (NYSE: FND) has fallen more than 7% over the last five days and nearly 20% over the last month.
While housing-market woes are unlikely to ease soon, Home Depot's resilience—coupled with bullish analyst sentiment and a recent dividend increase—highlights the business's underlying strength. Even a modest decline in mortgage rates, an uptick in consumer confidence, or a strong spring home-selling season could help restore momentum in the shares.
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