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As Energy Surges on Crack Spreads, Consider Taking Gains on 2 Small Cap Oil Stocks
By Dan Schmidt. Originally Published: 3/24/2026.
Key Points
- Crude oil prices have surged since the start of the Iran War, boosting the stocks of oil and gas companies across the industry.
- One unlikely beneficiary has been downstream refiners that benefit from large crack spreads, which measure the difference in raw and refined petroleum products.
- If these spreads normalize quickly, refiner margin compression will follow, so it might be time to take profits on these two soaring small-cap refiners.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Oil and gas stocks have surged since the start of the Iran conflict, largely because the Persian Gulf is critical to global oil flows. About 20 million barrels per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz—roughly 20% of global supply.
But the bigger story for investors goes beyond crude: refiners are benefiting from an unusual gap between crude and refined-product prices—diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Known as crack spreads, these gaps have propelled downstream oil stocks, particularly in the United States.
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Get Your 4 Fed-Proof StepsThat dynamic makes two small-cap refiners worth a closer look: their recent gains are tightly tied to today's unusually favorable spreads and could unwind quickly if conditions normalize.
Why Crude Prices Can Matter Less for Downstream Companies
If you've passed a gas station lately, you've probably done a double-take at how fast pump prices have climbed. According to AAA, the average national price at the pump in the United States is currently $3.94—up more than $1 in a month.
Unless you track it closely, diesel may have flown under your radar even as it climbed faster than gasoline. Crack spreads help explain why the energy sector is split into upstream, midstream and downstream companies:
- Upstream: Companies that explore for and produce crude oil; they directly benefit from higher oil prices.
- Midstream: Firms that handle transportation, storage and processing—the infrastructure linking upstream and downstream.
- Downstream: Companies that refine, process and market finished products like gasoline, diesel and petrochemicals.
Downstream companies don't automatically benefit from higher crude prices. Instead, their profitability depends on the crack spread—the difference between crude and refined product prices. Although oil prices have jumped since the fighting in Iran began, downstream firms have been insulated by wider crack spreads after Persian Gulf refining capacity went offline, which boosted refiners' margins.
Many market participants initially expected a short conflict, but as the situation appears entrenched, stocks in the sector have surged. That repricing, however, overlooks margin risks that could materialize as quickly as spreads widened.
Some catalysts to watch:
- If the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly: Refined-product flows could recover faster than crude capacity, pushing wholesale product prices down while crude stays elevated—compressing refiners' margins from both sides.
- Demand destruction from a prolonged shock: Sustained high crude prices can weaken economic activity. A slowdown in travel or industrial demand would reduce purchases of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, hitting refiners' volumes and revenue.
Governments are also releasing crude from strategic reserves to limit price spikes, which can help normalize spreads. And China's policy choices matter: if Beijing ramps up gasoline and diesel exports to Europe and Asia, U.S. refiners' margins could compress quickly.
2 Oil and Gas Stocks That Don't Want Spreads to Normalize
Large-cap refiners can blunt spread volatility with hedging programs and stronger balance sheets. Small-cap refiners often lack those cushions, so a rapid reset in crack spreads could trigger sharp repricing.
Below are two small-cap downstream stocks where profit-taking may be prudent.
CVR Energy: Beware the False Breakout
CVR Energy Inc. (NYSE: CVI) is up more than 60% this month, helped by higher petroleum and fertilizer prices.
The company's Petroleum Products division refines crude into diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, while its Nitrogen Fertilizers segment produces ammonia and urea.
Before the Iran conflict began, CVR reported a year-over-year revenue decline of 7% in Q4 2025, so the recent price shock has been beneficial to results.
CVI shares have cleared their 50- and 200-day moving averages in recent weeks, but the rally looks tenuous.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above 76 in overbought territory, and nearly 6% of the float is sold short, suggesting part of the rally could be short-covering. Despite the surge, five of six analysts covering CVI rate the stock a Sell.
PBF Energy: Earnings Beat Could Be a Top-Ticking Event
By contrast, PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) got a company-specific boost from its Q4 2025 results, which helped fuel a powerful rally.
While revenue missed expectations, earnings of $0.49 per share beat the forecasted $0.15 loss by a wide margin.
Management said crack spreads were already favoring the company even before the initial strikes against Iran.
The stock is up more than 80% year-to-date, including a gain north of 40% in the past month alone.
With the earnings bump fading, technical headwinds have emerged. Short interest exceeds 20%, which has amplified price moves, and the RSI now shows overbought readings while a potential double-top pattern is forming on the daily chart.
Insiders sold more than $300 million of PBF shares in Q1 with minimal buying, and analysts continue to rate the stock a Sell, with a consensus price target more than 30% below the current level.
When Insider Selling Is a Good Thing: 2 Stocks to Watch
Author: Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 3/23/2026.
Key Points
- Waste Management insiders sold roughly $25 million in stock after shares hit an all-time high in early 2026, but institutional accumulation and a growing dividend keep the long-term outlook bullish.
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals faces heavier insider and institutional selling, though analysts see roughly 25% upside driven by the commercial ramp of Olezarsen.
- Both stocks have pulled back from recent highs, potentially creating entry points for investors willing to look past short-term selling pressure.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Insider selling can be constructive when company insiders are taking profits in stocks with increasingly bullish outlooks. In this piece, one company is a dependable, cash-generating dividend-growth machine, while the other is a commercial-stage biopharma with forecasts for double-digit — potentially hyper — growth. In both cases, these stocks are pulling back from early‑2026 highs amid insider selling, presenting entry points for new investors.
Waste Management Doesn't Waste Time: Growth and Dividends in 2026
Waste Management (NYSE: WM) climbed 25% from its 2025 low to a new all‑time high in early 2026. That peak prompted insiders — including the CEO, CFO, CAO, COO and several VPs — to sell shares. The insider activity capped gains in Q1 but is otherwise immaterial to the longer-term outlook: insiders own only 0.18% of the company and sales totaled less than $25 million, while other forces supporting the stock remain bullish.
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Get Your 4 Fed-Proof StepsInstitutional activity shows accumulation over the trailing 12‑month (TTM) period, with buying ramping in 2025 and maintaining a strong pace into 2026. Institutions own a relatively high 80% of the shares and have been accumulating for three years without any distribution quarters, and the earnings and capital‑return outlook suggests this trend can continue.
Analysts are also bullish, with strong conviction: 25 ratings are currently tracked for 2026, and coverage has increased on a TTM basis. That support provides a tailwind for the stock and reinforces the investment case.
Sentiment is firming, with a Moderate Buy rating that verges on Strong Buy and an upward price‑target trend. Consensus forecasts roughly 10% upside as of late March, which would be enough to reach a new all‑time high if analyst momentum continues.
The dividend is a compelling reason to own WM. The company yields a market‑beating 1.65% in early 2026, with a payout ratio around 56% of earnings and a history of annual increases. At this pace, Waste Management is on track for potential inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats index by the end of the decade — an outcome that would likely increase buy‑and‑hold ownership, reduce volatility and support the stock's uptrend.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals: A Cautious Outlook for a Potential Blockbuster
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: IONS) is an RNA‑focused biopharma with multiple products on the market and two key drivers. Spinraza, sold through a partnership, remains a blockbuster but is in decline. The more important near‑term asset is Olezarsen, a wholly owned therapy expected to see peak sales above $2 billion. Many analysts view that $2 billion projection as conservative, and price targets have been rising as a result.
Insider selling at Ionis mirrors Waste Management in timing — many insiders sold in Q1 2026 — but here it's compounded by heavier insider sales in 2025 and significant institutional selling. Institutions own more than 90% of Ionis, and their selling is a notable headwind in 2026. Data show institutions sold on a TTM basis in three of four quarters in 2025 and continued at a rapid pace in Q1 2026 as they took profits.
Analysts provide a counterpoint. Institutions have taken profits after the stock more than doubled from its 2025 low, but analyst data show a consensus Moderate Buy from 21 analysts, with increasing coverage, firming sentiment and rising price targets. The consensus implies about 25% upside by year‑end, and the high end of analyst targets suggests more than an additional 10% beyond that.
Ionis' growth outlook is the primary reason to consider the stock. The company is forecast to sustain growth in the high‑20% range well into the next decade, reach profitability in 2028 and improve margins thereafter. Long‑term models imply a valuation based on roughly a 7x multiple of 2035 earnings; at that multiple the shares could more than double in the coming years and still look inexpensive. If Olezarsen's forecasts are conservative and the pipeline advances as expected, upside could be materially higher — Ionis has several candidates progressing toward near‑ and mid‑term commercialization.
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