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This Week's Exclusive Story

Is Oracle the First of the AI Bubbles to Pop?

By Sam Quirke. Published: 3/28/2026.

Key Points

Oracle shares have sunk 60% from last year’s highs, raising fresh questions about whether the AI hype cycle is already unwinding.
However, despite the selloff, recent earnings and analyst commentary suggest the underlying story may be more resilient than the market is pricing in.
With sentiment deeply negative and expectations close to rock bottom, the setup is starting to look more attractive than it has in months.
Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO

Tech giant Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) has gone from one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) rally to one of its most notable casualties.

After surging above $345 last September as the AI boom took hold, the stock has since tumbled to just above $140 — a decline of nearly 60% as shown in the chart.

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That rally — and the subsequent fall — did not happen in a vacuum.

It was driven by aggressive investor positioning around AI infrastructure, with Oracle increasingly viewed as a core beneficiary of rising demand for cloud and enterprise AI workloads.

Expectations peaked last September and the stock followed. Now that dynamic is working in reverse, raising big questions: is Oracle potentially the first major AI name to see its bubble burst, or has the market overcorrected and created a compelling entry opportunity?

Here's a closer look.

The Bear Case Is Hard to Ignore

From the outside, the bear case is straightforward. Last summer and into early fall, Oracle was swept up in the broader AI enthusiasm. But in the months since, some awkward questions have emerged about the company's strategy. To capture the opportunity, Oracle has had to invest heavily in AI infrastructure — particularly cloud and data center capacity — which demands significant capital.

A report last month that the company was planning to raise more than $50 billion to build additional capacity was met with skepticism rather than excitement, with many investors arguing that spending is running well ahead of returns.

Broader market dynamics have amplified that concern. Rising yields and a reduced appetite for risk have made investors less willing to pay for long-duration growth stories, especially those with heavy upfront investment requirements.

In that context, Oracle's selloff looks less like an anomaly and more like a reflection of a shifting market environment. If the AI trade continues to unwind amid high investor skepticism, it wouldn't be surprising to see some peers come under pressure as well.

But the Outlook Is Still Bullish

There is a meaningful counterpoint. Despite the share-price decline, Oracle's recent earnings have generally beaten expectations, and analyst sentiment has been leaning bullish.

Bank of America, for example, rated the stock a Buy this week, echoing similar moves from Mizuho, Guggenheim and Citigroup earlier this month. After the last earnings report, many analysts suggested some of the most bearish concerns should ease.

Taken together, these updates indicate that while sentiment has soured, upside has not disappeared: some recent price targets extend to $400 — roughly 185% above current levels.

It's also worth noting that Oracle isn't trying to win the AI race the way some hyperscalers are. Instead, it positions itself as a critical infrastructure layer, supplying cloud capacity and enterprise software that AI applications rely on. That distinction matters: though it may not grab headlines, it allows Oracle to benefit from broader AI adoption regardless of which platforms or models prevail.

If that thesis holds, the current pullback may prove to be a sentiment reset rather than a full breakdown.

The Next Move Will Come Down to Confidence

Looking ahead, the key question is whether investors believe Oracle can convert the AI opportunity into sustainable growth. That makes the next earnings report in June particularly important. With much of the AI-driven gains already erased, expectations are materially lower than they were a few months ago.

If Oracle shares can stabilize around support in the coming weeks and the company delivers a solid report, it would go a long way toward restoring confidence in its growth trajectory. Conversely, any signs that growth is faltering or that spending isn't translating into returns would reinforce the bearish narrative and keep pressure on the stock.

This Week's Exclusive Story

A Quiet Navy Shipbuilding Move Just Put Palantir's Software Deeper Into the Yard

By Chris Markoch. Published: 3/20/2026.

Key Points

Keel Holdings has joined Palantir in the U.S. Navy’s ShipOS initiative, a program aimed at modernizing the Maritime Industrial Base with AI and integrated data workflows.
ShipOS appears aligned with the federal push to rebuild U.S. maritime capacity, even if it sits outside the formal Maritime Action Plan framework.
Palantir’s government exposure remains a central debate, but the operational work described for ShipOS also resembles problems commercial manufacturers face at scale.
Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO

In a week when defense and aerospace stocks are vying for investors' attention, one development flew under the radar—but it could have big implications for the U.S. Navy and for Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR).

The item: Keel Holdings and Palantir are partnering to support the U.S. Navy's Shipbuilding Operating System (ShipOS) initiative.

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The program aims to transform America's Maritime Industrial Base (MIB) through advanced artificial intelligence and tighter data integration across shipbuilders, shipyards, and suppliers. ShipOS is backed by approximately $4.448 billion in authorized funding.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp said the partnership aligns directly with the company's mission to support U.S. military advantage.

ShipOS was first announced in December 2025, and the recent development is Keel's addition to the existing arrangement with Palantir.

"By leveraging Palantir's AI-powered ShipOS, we are taking meaningful steps to accelerate our schedules, streamline operations, and enhance collaboration across the supply chain," said Keel CEO Brian Carter.

When ShipOS kicked off, 79th Secretary of the Navy John C. Phelan described the initiative as more than a software rollout—saying it "puts Palantir's cutting-edge tools in the hands of decision makers at every level" by providing real-time visibility across the supply chain.

A Proof of Concept Running Parallel to a Bigger Policy Push

Recently, President Trump signed an executive order calling for rebuilding the U.S. Navy's fleet.

The centerpiece of the administration's effort is America's Maritime Action Plan (MAP), which will be supported by billions in federal funding.

Although ShipOS is not formally part of MAP, both initiatives sit under the Navy's Maritime Industrial Base workstream, which MAP treats as central to its revitalization strategy. ShipOS also complements several MAP objectives, including:

Addressing the decline in domestic shipbuilding capacity
Modernizing shipyards with digital tools and integrated data systems
Demonstrating meaningful efficiency gains in production planning and execution

Put simply, ShipOS functions as an operational, AI-driven proof of concept running alongside MAP's broader policy and funding framework. MAP sets the national strategy; ShipOS is already executing a key piece of it on the ground.

What the Skeptics May Be Missing

Critics of Palantir quickly point out the company's dependence on U.S. government contracts, viewing this as an Achilles' heel.

Consider that concern in two ways. First, even if it's "only" a government deal, it's a sizable one. Valued at $448 million, it would represent more than a quarter of Palantir's 2025 government revenue of $1.855 billion. That supports the bullish view that significant growth remains for Palantir.

Second, the work Palantir will handle for this contract—integrating operational data, reducing bottlenecks, compressing planning cycles, and improving supplier coordination—has clear applications in the commercial sector. Three years ago the commercial side of Palantir's business was small; as of the company's last earnings report, it now accounts for nearly 45% of Palantir's revenue.

Palantir has evolved considerably from its earlier reputation as a government-only, opaque surveillance tool.

PLTR Technical Setup: Key Levels to Watch

PLTR stock is up more than 15% in the last month.

Investors have been returning to the stock amid heightened geopolitical tensions after the United States and Israel commenced military action against Iran.

That said, the price has consolidated over the last two weeks, reflecting broader market uncertainty and ongoing debate over Palantir's valuation.

Over the long haul, the bull case for Palantir remains intact.

The analyst consensus price target is about $195—roughly 2% higher than before the recent rally. UBS Group recently reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target to $200 from $180, while Dan Ives of Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating with a $230 target.

In the short term, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could be decisive. Despite recent volatility, the stock has tracked closely to that level. A convincing, sustained move above the 50-day SMA would be needed to kick off the next leg higher.

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