| | You know how you beat yourself up when your entries are garbage? When you buy the high, sell the low, and feel like you couldn't time a traffic light correctly? | I figured out the real problem. | Your timing doesn't suck because you're bad at trading. Your timing sucks because you're trying to trade in volatility. | I'm not talking about regular market chop. I'm talking about those days when everything goes sideways - war breaks out, Fed speaks, earnings miss big. The days when you think, "This is my chance to make real money." | Those are exactly the days you should sit on your hands. | | | When the cash market opens during chaos, you get what I call "order flow imbalances." Apple traded maybe a million shares pre-market. Bell rings, suddenly 2 million shares for sale hit the pipes. Might not have buyers. Or vice versa. | That pop you're seeing in the first few minutes? Not a rally. That's just massive order flow flooding the marketplace, creating imbalances that look like directional moves but aren't. | I watched it happen the other day. S&Ps down 115 handles, everything looking like hell. First minute of trade, you see this pop and think "rally!" | Nope. Just order flow piling in. Huge imbalances. Then it reverses. Then it pops again. | The algorithms love this because they can process it instantly. You? You're trying to read through something that's literally indistinguishable from noise. It's like trying to have a conversation during a rock concert. | The professionals know this. When volatility spikes, they step back. When the VIX hits extreme levels, they wait. When order flow gets crazy, they let it sort itself out. | But retail traders see big moves and think "opportunity." They jump in during the exact moments when reading the market is impossible. | You're not a bad trader. You're trying to trade during the only times when being a good trader doesn't matter. | I've been doing this for decades, and on those volatility explosion days, I still can't get a feel for what pricing looks like. Bid-offer spreads go wild. Nothing makes sense for the first hour sometimes. | Don't try to get better timing. Learn to recognize when timing becomes irrelevant. | Next time volatility explodes and everything's moving fast, remember this: you're not missing out by waiting. You're avoiding the meat grinder that kills most retail accounts. | Let the dust settle. Let the order imbalances work through. Let the professionals finish their dance. | Your timing doesn't suck. You're just trying to time the untimeable. | Wait for the moments when skill matters again. | To your success, | Don Kaufman |
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