Money Is Already Leaving the Giants. Are You Watching the Right Stocks?
Apple, Tesla, Nvidia. Everyone's locked on the same tickers, and that's exactly why the next fast move is starting somewhere else.
Jeff Bierman calls the early clue the BURN SIGNAL, the behavior he's spent 34+ years learning to spot before a neglected stock rips. XOM +$7 in 8 days. MO +$4 in a single session. All before the move looked obvious.
This Thursday, April 9th at 2pm EST, Jeff is going live to walk through exactly what he looks for and how to stop chasing breakouts after they've already happened.
Free. Live. Capacity is limited.
👉 [CLAIM YOUR SEAT]
Don here...
Oil went from $65 to $112.
Most people think that story is about energy stocks.
Brandon Chapman showed today why the real story is about the dollar and what it means for every asset you own.
If you’re not already, I suggest you subscribe to Brandon’s free newsletter HERE.
Everything in the S&P 500 is priced in dollars. When oil surges, it takes more dollars to buy it.
Global debt is denominated in dollars. Commodities are transacted in dollars. Fifty percent of all US dollars are held abroad because the rest of the world needs them.
So when oil spikes this fast, the scramble for dollars begins.
In today's free session replay, you'll discover:
- How the dollar milkshake theory explains why rising oil prices lead to deflation. Brandon walked through the mechanics of how higher commodity prices create a liquidity crunch. Private credit firms like Blue Owl and Brookfield are seeing redemptions right now. The cycle feeds on itself. Stronger dollar, more stress on dollar-denominated debt, more forced selling.
- Why emerging markets have been under pressure since March 3rd and what it signals for US stocks. Brazil should be benefiting from higher oil. It is not. The stronger dollar is crushing emerging market currencies. Currency swaps with Europe help, but they do not eliminate the risk of a broader credit crisis.
- The common mistake that makes people think they are tracking the dollar when they are actually pricing the S&P in euros. Dividing SPX by DXY does not give you the S&P in real terms. Brandon explained why the DXY is 57% weighted to the euro, so the division cancels out the dollar and gives you a euro-denominated index. Most analysts get this wrong.
- Where institutions are placing bets right now despite the macro risk. Brandon found 7,500 call contracts bought in a single print on the financial sector ETF ahead of bank earnings. Cannabis stocks are seeing massive upside positioning ahead of a White House enforcement meeting next week. The institutional flow tells you where the money is going before the headlines do.
Brandon made a point that stuck with me: You can try to guess where the money is going, or you can look at where the money is going.
In a market like this one, guessing is a luxury nobody can afford.
→ Watch Brandon explain why the oil-dollar-credit cycle creates the biggest risk to the S&P 500 and where institutional money is actually flowing right now
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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