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Sunday's Bonus Story Chipotle's Chicken Al Pastor Is Back on the Menu, and So's GrowthBy Sam Quirke. Posted: 3/23/2026. 
Key Points - Chipotle shares are attracting bullish attention following a brutal downtrend, with a popular menu item helping drive a rebound in customer traffic.
- A fresh analyst upgrade tied directly to the return of Chicken al Pastor suggests the company’s growth engine may be reaccelerating.
- With the stock still down more than 50% from its 2024 highs, the current setup offers a compelling risk-reward opportunity.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a "wealthy man"
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) has had a difficult couple of years. After peaking in the summer of 2024, the fast-casual giant entered a prolonged downtrend; its shares lost more than half their value, prompting investors to wonder whether the company's best growth days were behind it. While the stock rallied 40% between last November and January, it has since surrendered most of that advance. Recent developments, however, suggest the narrative may be shifting — and somewhat surprisingly, a returning fan-favorite menu item is a key driver. Chicken Al Pastor Is Driving Traffic Again Chipotle's decision to bring back its popular Chicken al Pastor appears to be having an immediate impact. According to Mizuho, the item helped boost customer traffic in the first quarter, signaling that demand remains strong when the company executes its menu strategy well. This matters more than it might at first glance. For a company like Chipotle, traffic growth is a primary driver of long-term performance. While pricing has supported results in recent years, sustained growth ultimately depends on getting more customers through the door. The success of Chicken al Pastor reinforces that limited-time offerings and menu innovation can still move the needle. In a competitive fast-casual landscape, the ability to generate excitement and drive repeat visits is a key differentiator. Analysts Are Turning Bullish Again In a note to clients last week, Mizuho's Nick Setyan upgraded his rating on Chipotle to Outperform and raised his price target, explicitly citing the positive impact of Chicken al Pastor on traffic trends. That call adds to a growing list of bullish updates from recent weeks. Firms including TD Cowen, Stifel Nicolaus, and DA Davidson have shared positive views on the stock in March, with price targets reaching as high as $51. With the stock trading around $33, those high-end targets imply potential upside of roughly 50%. Taken together, the analyst activity suggests growing confidence that Chipotle may be entering a new phase of recovery. The consistency of bullish calls points to a broader shift in sentiment rather than a one-off upgrade. For context, there haven't been any negative updates from the analyst community since Argus' Hold rating in early February. A Technical Setup That Supports the Story Improving fundamentals are beginning to align with a more constructive technical picture. After spending much of the past year in a steady downtrend, Chipotle shares appear to be attempting to form a bottom. The stock is moving up out of extremely oversold territory and is beginning to form a higher low. That's a critical development: a confirmed higher low would mark the first meaningful shift in trend structure since the selloff began nearly two years ago and would suggest that the worst of the downside is behind the stock. In many turnarounds, price action improves before the full recovery shows up in the fundamentals. That dynamic may be playing out here, with the recent bounce reflecting renewed investor willingness to reengage with the company's growth story. Smart Money Is Starting to Take Notice Adding weight to the bullish case is growing institutional involvement. Well-known hedge fund manager Dan Loeb and his Third Point disclosed a fresh position in Chipotle last month, a move that suggests savvy investors are starting to see value at current levels. That kind of interest often appears during transitions—from rock-bottom expectations to an improving outlook. In that context, Third Point's involvement adds another layer of credibility to the idea that Chipotle could be in the early stages of a recovery. What to Expect Next Chipotle's recent momentum may have an unlikely catalyst, but the implications are meaningful. The return of Chicken al Pastor is doing more than boosting short-term sales; it's helping demonstrate that the company's long-term growth prospects remain intact. Combined with a wave of bullish analyst updates, improving price action, and some emerging institutional interest, the setup is increasingly attractive. Given how much the stock has been beaten down over the past two years and its multi-year low valuation, the current risk/reward looks compelling. | 
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