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This Month's Exclusive Story
Homebuilder Earnings: D.R. Horton Sticks Out as Pulte & NVR Sales TankBy Leo Miller. Publication Date: 4/27/2026. 
Key Points
- Homebuilding funds like the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF have seen very weak performance for well more than year.
- In the latest round of homebuilder earnings, D.R. Horton impressed, beating estimates on EPS and seeing a solid order increase.
- Pulte and NVR saw sales and EPS take big hits, but analysts are eyeing meaningful recoveries in these names.
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Homebuilders have been going through a rough patch lately. Across the top homebuilding stocks, analysts expected revenues and earnings to decline significantly in Q1 2026, and that is exactly what happened. For more than a year, stocks in this industry have traded in a range. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA: XHB) is a commonly used proxy for the sector, tracking the performance of more than 30 homebuilders and housing-related stocks. The fund has delivered an approximate total return of just 5% since the start of 2025. With interest rates still relatively high and housing affordability still low, stocks in this space have struggled to gain much momentum.
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Three of the top U.S. homebuilders just reported earnings; here’s how they stacked up and what that signals for the industry going forward. Pulte’s EPS Falls 30%, Analysts Point to Moderate UpsidePulte Group (NYSE: PHM) is one of the more diversified U.S. homebuilders, targeting a balanced mix of market segments. In Q1, 38% of the company’s sales came from first-time buyers, while “move-up” buyers accounted for 39%. Its “active adult” buyer group, which includes sales in 55+ communities, accounted for 23% of sales. Pulte saw sales fall 12% year over year (YOY) to $3.41 billion, essentially in line with estimates. The sharp decline came even as the company offered much larger incentives to homebuyers. This led to a substantial 310-basis-point compression in gross home sales margin. As a result, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by just over 30% to $1.79, 1 cent short of estimates. New orders grew moderately by 3% YOY, similar to the 4% increase seen in Q4 2025, but Pulte did not change its full-year guidance. Still, Pulte gained a modest 2.4% after its report, indicating the results were better than some investors had feared. Several analysts tracked by MarketBeat raised their price targets after the report, with updates averaging around $147. That figure implies solid upside in the shares and is slightly above the MarketBeat consensus price target of around $141. D.R. Horton Outperforms Against Low Expectations, Targets Remain Wide ApartHomebuilding behemoth D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) was a clear standout. The company, which focuses on first-time homebuyers, posted revenue of $7.56 billion. That marked a moderate 2% YOY decline, roughly in line with expectations and by far the best result among this group. The firm also posted a solid bottom-line beat, with adjusted EPS of $2.24 versus estimates of $2.15. That figure fell 13% YOY. Forward-looking metrics were particularly strong, with home orders rising 11% YOY, the highest rate among these names. The company did slightly lower the top end of its full-year guidance to $34.5 billion, but its midpoint estimate of $34 billion still exceeded estimates. D.R. Horton also saw considerable margin compression, with adjusted home sales gross margin declining 230 basis points to 19.7%. Overall, these results helped DHI shares soar by nearly 6% after earnings. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $169 implies only around 5% upside in the shares. Notably, all analysts who issued updates after the report raised their price targets; however, updated targets averaged around $165. They also showed significant variance, ranging from $206 to $123. Those figures imply upside of more than 25% and downside of more than 20%, respectively. NVR: Sales Plummet, Order Growth Ticks UpNVR (NYSE: NVR) sits more in the middle of the market, with its average home selling price coming in at $457,000 in Q1 2026. That was squarely between Pulte’s $542,000 average selling price and D.R. Horton’s $362,000, highlighting the differences in income among their respective customer bases. The company saw revenues take a 21.7% hit, falling to $1.91 billion. That significantly missed estimates of $2.09 billion. EPS fell by 28.6% to $67.76, missing estimates of $79.97 by a wide margin. The company’s gross margin compression mirrored D.R. Horton’s, with the figure falling 230 basis points to 19.6%. However, like the other two names, new orders saw a moderate increase, rising 7%. That was an improvement over the 4% increase in the prior quarter. NVR’s average selling price remained flat YOY, while the metric fell 3% at Pulte and 5% at D.R. Horton. Combined with rising orders, that is a positive sign for NVR, showing the company is not compromising on price to drive demand. Notably, NVR does not provide forward guidance. NVR shares fell 4.7% following the results. Multiple analysts lowered their targets after the report, with updates averaging approximately $7,465, moderately below the consensus target near $7,650. This updated average target implies just under 15% upside in the shares. Homebuilders Continue to Face a Difficult EnvironmentEarnings across these three names showed a clear trend: revenue pressure and margin compression across the industry. D.R. Horton was the bright spot, with the smallest sales decline and the strongest order growth. Encouragingly, orders rose across all names, but the industry is still stuck in a rut. Price targets remain relatively subdued, but they point to upside ahead, suggesting a degree of optimism among analysts. Fixed rates on 30-year mortgages briefly fell below 6% prior to the conflict in the Middle East. Rates have since moved back to 6.2%. A clear end to the conflict would be a meaningful positive for homebuilders, likely helping rates approach 6% again and improving demand. |
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