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3 Agriculture Stocks to Buy as Food Inflation Stays Elevated in 2026Author: Chris Markoch. Published: 4/20/2026. 
Key Points
- Food inflation is expected to remain above the historical average in 2026, creating tailwinds for agricultural commodity-linked stocks.
- Deere is benefiting from precision agriculture adoption and improving equipment demand at a cyclical turning point.
- Mosaic and Nutrien offer leveraged exposure to rising fertilizer prices, though input cost volatility remains a key risk.
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In theory, inflation should self-correct. That is, when the price of goods and services gets too high, sales drop off until supply and demand rebalance. In the real world, however, inflation can become sticky because some goods and services—like food and gasoline—are difficult for consumers to avoid. To illustrate, the USDA’s Economic Research Service projects overall food prices will rise 3.6% in 2026. That’s above the 20-year historical average and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
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It would be easy to point the finger at grocery stores, but they operate on razor-thin margins, so that argument doesn’t hold up. The problem is more structural and driven by a constellation of largely independent factors. For example, food price inflation has been driven in part by higher commodity prices. Just as there were signs prices were abating, conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy costs, which in turn raised input expenses for food producers. All of this suggests food prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. That’s a challenge for consumers but an opportunity for investors to buy agricultural stocks positioned to benefit from the disruption. Positioned at the Cycle Bottom, Primed for the TurnDeere & Co. (NYSE: DE) is an example of why investors should own best-in-class stocks. Long before the downturn in the agriculture cycle, Deere was investing in precision technology—including autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence—in anticipation of future demand. Despite the sector's headwinds, Deere is seeing tangible benefits. Used large-tractor inventories are down more than 40% from a peak in early 2025, leaving room for new equipment. About 80% of new combine orders now include Deere’s highest-tier automation package, suggesting farmers are committed to the future of precision agriculture. Deere is also receiving a tailwind from infrastructure demand, including data centers. That helps explain why DE stock is up more than 30% over the past 12 months and more than 25% year-to-date in 2026. In the two years prior, the total return in the stock was 18%. Analysts have a consensus price target of $655.45 on DE stock, which as of April 14 represents some upside. That outlook pairs with a dividend yielding about 1.1% and an annual payout of $6.48 per share. A Deep-Value Stock at a Cyclical Inflection PointThe Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is one of the world’s leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. That helps explain why MOS was down roughly 10% in the 30 days ending April 16: fertilizer prices are expected to spike as critical inputs face disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Mosaic is highly sensitive to sulfur costs. Analysts estimate that every $10-per-ton increase in sulfur prices reduces Mosaic’s quarterly EBITDA by about $10 million. That margin pressure could offset any benefit Mosaic might receive from China’s National Development and Reform Commission announcement last year that it was implementing a dual-track pricing model that effectively restricted phosphate exports until at least August. Analysts are neutral to cautious, assigning a consensus Hold rating and a $30 price target, which implies roughly 20% upside. Still, MOS appears attractively valued at about 14x trailing earnings and roughly 12x forward earnings. Those multiples could compress further if the company delivers stronger 12-month earnings growth than the 7.8% currently forecast. The World's Largest Potash Producer, Firing on All CylindersNutrien (NYSE: NTR) is a solid momentum play. The company generated net earnings of $2.30 billion for the full year 2025, driven by higher net selling prices for fertilizer, record upstream selling volumes and stronger retail earnings. That performance helped send NTR up nearly 35% over the past 12 months and about 15% year-to-date in 2026. The company’s scale—including potash mines in Saskatchewan, nitrogen facilities across North America, and a sprawling direct-to-farmer retail network—positions the Canadian-based firm for further growth this year. The fluctuating situation in the Strait of Hormuz has affected natural gas prices in 2026. Natural gas is central to producing ammonia, a key input for nitrogen fertilizer. However, Nutrien is better positioned than many peers to absorb higher gas costs because of its North American production base, and it benefits on the pricing side when global nitrogen markets tighten. NTR looks attractively valued at about 15x earnings. Analysts maintain a consensus Hold rating, but sentiment has turned more bullish recently, with several analysts raising price targets in April. |
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