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Lehman Brothers, which we also called six months before it happened.
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Amazon Could Be About to Reap the Rewards of a Software Spending Boom
Author: Sam Quirke. Published: 6/30/2026.
Key Points
- A Jefferies survey of 40 IT executives found that 95% expect cloud budgets to increase in 2026, directly supporting AWS demand.
- Cloud spending is projected to grow more than 10% in 2026, up from 9.6% in 2025, with 56% of CIOs planning higher AWS expenditures.
- Despite near-term headwinds including FTC scrutiny and CapEx concerns, the survey data suggests Amazon's infrastructure spending is demand-driven, not speculative.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
There is a growing argument that the market has been pricing Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) on fear rather than fundamentals in recent weeks. CapEx concerns, the FTC noise, and the Blue Origin setback have combined to leave the stock looking unusually unloved.
But beneath the headlines, the underlying demand picture for one of Amazon's biggest growth engines is suddenly looking very strong. As we'll see below, a new survey of IT executives by Jefferies has delivered exactly the kind of data point the bulls have been looking for. According to the poll of 40 tech executives, cloud spending is expected to grow more than 10% in 2026, up from 9.6% in 2025.
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Watch Porter's full breakdown of Project Prophet and Emmet's systemEven more strikingly, an overwhelming 95% of respondents said they expect their cloud budgets to increase next year.
For Amazon, whose AWS unit is the world's leading cloud provider, that's exactly the kind of demand backdrop that recent share price weakness has not priced in.
The Survey That Changes the Conversation
Shares of Amazon are currently trading around $240, having recovered modestly from last week's lows but still down meaningfully from the all-time highs set last month. The selling pressure has been driven by a familiar mix of CapEx concerns and a broader cooling in sentiment toward AI infrastructure plays. That backdrop is exactly what makes the Jefferies survey so timely.
The survey showed "bullish spend intentions" for AWS specifically, with 56% of CIOs expecting to spend more on the platform in 2026. While placing AWS slightly behind Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) in the rankings, the data still strongly endorsed the platform's positioning at a time when the market has been questioning whether Amazon's enormous CapEx spending will translate into meaningful revenue.
Why This Hits Right Where the Market Is Wrong
The reason this matters so much is that it directly challenges the bearish narrative driving the recent selloff. Much of Amazon's underperformance has come down to a single concern: that the company is spending too much on AI infrastructure too quickly.
However, the Jefferies survey points to exactly the kind of demand picture that supports the CapEx story. If 95% of CIOs plan to increase cloud spending next year, and AWS is clearly a beneficiary of that trend, then the spending Amazon has been doing on data centers and AI infrastructure isn't speculative. It's being built to meet demand that customers themselves are explicitly telling analysts they plan to deliver.
In other words, the bulls who have been arguing that the CapEx concern is overblown just got a serious data point to support their case. The market may not have caught onto it yet, but it usually does not take long for survey data this constructive to start showing up in analyst notes and revised earnings estimates.
The Bigger Strategic Picture
What makes the survey particularly encouraging is the role of AI within it. About 68% of CIOs now have a dedicated AI budget, and around 11% of overall IT budgets are now allocated to AI workloads. Just as importantly, 73% of respondents said their actual year-to-date AI spending is tracking above their initial budgets, with some companies already having burned through their full annual AI allocation.
For AWS, which sits at the heart of the AI infrastructure stack and counts Anthropic as one of its most important customers, that's exactly the kind of dynamic that should compound into meaningful revenue growth in the quarters ahead.
Combine that with its other deepening enterprise AI partnerships and the continued momentum within the broader Amazon business, and the bull case at $240 looks considerably more attractive than the recent price action would suggest.
Where That Leaves the Opportunity
To be sure, none of this immediately solves the near-term challenges Amazon faces. The FTC situation is still in play, the broader AI CapEx narrative will take time to shift, and there could be more volatility ahead before sentiment fully turns. The patience tax that comes with owning Amazon right now is real.
But for those willing to look past the noise, the Jefferies survey quietly shifts the underlying argument. The market has been worrying about whether AWS's demand justifies the spending. The customers themselves are now telling analysts that it does.
Dividend Increases: From Over 10% Yields to Over 10% Dividend Growth
Author: Leo Miller. Published: 6/24/2026.
Key Points
- A mortgage REIT with a yield already well above 10% just issued a solid boost to its quarterly payment.
- A consumer staples stock putting up large returns just lifted its dividend by 14%, staying with its multi-year trend of large increases.
- After appointing a new CEO, this large retailer is seeing a resurgence in its shares while also providing a strong dividend yield.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
Several stocks spanning the gamut from high dividend yields to rapid dividend growth just added more juice to their payouts. These names offer yields that stretch above 13% at the high end, while others recently increased their dividends by as much as 14%. That gives investors multiple ways to play the yield-versus-growth spectrum.
Annaly: High-Yield Mortgage REIT With Notable Risks
Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) with a very high dividend yield. The company is specifically involved in managing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other types of debt.
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Claim Your Spot.As a mortgage REIT, the company’s value proposition is its ability to identify and generate returns on MBSs, which then flow to its bottom line. After the company’s latest dividend increase of 7%, Annaly now has an indicated dividend yield near 13.5%. The company’s next dividend is payable on July 31 to shareholders of record as of June 30.
However, one important risk to understand is Annaly’s use of leverage to generate returns, which increases both upside and downside volatility. Still, Annaly argues that it uses leverage more effectively than others in its industry.
Specifically, the firm notes that its economic return per unit of leverage is 2%, or 30% higher than that of the average mortgage REIT.
In other words, to generate the same gain on its underlying investments, the company has used less leverage than its competitors. Annaly has executed its strategy well, delivering a total return of over 40% since the start of 2025. Approximately half of that return has come from dividends. Overall, Annaly’s large dividend yield is appealing, but leverage risk is something investors must take into account.
Casey’s: Expanding Dividend Rapidly, Rising Shares Weigh on Yield
Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) may not be in tech or artificial intelligence, but this consumer staples stock has still been putting up strong returns. After rising 40% in 2025, Casey’s has returned approximately 50% in 2026. The convenience store and gas station chain has made a name for itself with its in-house food, best known for its pizza.
The company has consistently outperformed analyst expectations, with its latest earnings report serving as another example. Sales grew by 14.5% year over year (YOY) to $4.57 billion, solidly beating estimates, while earnings per share (EPS) soared by 66% to $4.37. This allowed Casey’s to crush expectations of $3.31 by more than $1, sending shares up 20% afterward.
Casey’s also announced a substantial dividend increase of 14%. As Casey’s share price has performed well, large dividend increases have also become common, with this marking the fourth year in a row that Casey’s has boosted its dividend by 13% or more.
However, while Casey’s dividend has grown at a fast pace, its share price has risen even faster, leaving the stock with a low indicated dividend yield near 0.3%. The company’s next dividend is payable on Aug. 14 to shareholders of record as of the Aug. 1 close. Overall, dividend income ranks lower on the list of reasons to own Casey’s. However, the company’s willingness to strongly increase its capital returns is a nice cherry on top of its impressive underlying performance.
Target: Rebounding Retailer With an Over 3% Yield
Another impressive story in the consumer staples sector is Target (NYSE: TGT). After delivering a return of -25% in 2025, Target appointed a new CEO near the beginning of 2026. So far, the move appears to be paying off. After posting five straight quarters of negative sales growth, Target grew revenue by 6.7% YOY in its latest quarter. Not only did the figure return to positive territory, but it was also Target’s highest sales growth rate in approximately four years.
Target also saw a strong improvement in its EPS, which rose by 31% YOY to $1.71, handily beating estimates of $1.47.
The company now expects sales growth of nearly 4% for the full year, which would be its best annual growth rate since 2022. As Target works to turn around its business, shares have delivered a return of more than 30% in 2026.
Notably, Target also announced a small dividend increase of just under 2%, moving its quarterly payout to $1.16. The company’s next dividend is payable on Sept. 1 to shareholders of record as of the Aug. 12 close.
Despite Target’s latest increase being modest, the stock’s dividend yield remains relatively high, near 3.5%.
Target also has a very long track record of dividend increases, having raised its payment for 54 years in a row. With this, Target offers investors a solid dividend yield while also providing upside potential should the recovery in its financial performance continue.
Annaly, Casey's, and Target: Different Flavors of Dividends and Growth
While Annaly, Casey's, and Target offer very different dividend profiles, all are showing a strong desire to return increasing amounts of capital to shareholders. When it comes to Annaly, investors should also know the company can significantly cut its dividend at times. This happened in 2023, when the firm reduced its dividend by approximately 26%.
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