The Circle of Inflation

'Round and 'round and 'round it goes… Where it stops nobody knows
 
   
     
   
 
MARCH 20, 2024
   
PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK
The Circle of Life Inflation
 

Have you noticed insurance surging lately? Car insurance, home insurance, business insurance, flood insurance. You name it, it’s up.

In the case of car insurance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed rates more than 20% higher than last year.

And just the other day, we saw that Fed Chair Jerome Powell was placing the blame for sticky inflation on insurance.

So we thought we’d ask our favorite commodities trader, Geof Smith what he thought of Powell laying the blame for inflation at the foot of the insurance industry.

While Geof’s answer might not surprise you, it does highlight how interconnected our economy is.

Geof’s take is that insurance companies take on risk — it’s at the heart of their business.

And because of the kind of runaway inflation we’ve seen in the post-Covid recovery, the cost of goods and services across the board have gone up astronomically.

You’ve probably noticed it everywhere from the grocery store to the car dealership to restaurants, home repairs, healthcare and travel costs.

And when everything goes up… who’s on the hook for insuring it all? Insurance companies, of course.

They may not directly insure your groceries or your vacation. But as prices for goods and services soar, insurance costs naturally follow to cover the increased value of claims.

This cycle creates a feedback loop where the costs of insurances across various sectors add another layer of inflationary pressure on the economy.

Next time you see your insurance premium go up, remember it's a reflection of the broader economic shifts happening around us.

This intricate web of cause and effect shows just how dynamic and interconnected our financial systems are, with each part influencing the other in profound ways.

Speaking of insurance, our friend Jeffry Turnmire analyzed two insurance company stocks with diverging fortunes: United Healthcare (UNH) and Cigna (CI)

UNH has been consolidating for over a year now, with clear resistance at the $550 level. Translation: not a lot of opportunity right now.

Meanwhile, as a trending stock, CI presents a much better trade with targets at $365 or even $399.

Watch the full segment here for details.

— The Prosperity Pub Team

 
 
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GUY COHEN’S TRADE RADAR
This Market Needs A Pause
 
 
 

Energy stocks have been strong, but not weighted enough to prop up the rest of the market. There are still many overbought stocks, which need to pause, while the number of really great quality bullish setups is low.

Last week I gave a neutral forecast pending the reaction from Nvidia’s blow off. This week I’m more confident of new highs being unlikely.

If they are breached in the short term, I would be surprised if they held.

As ever, in the meantime, just trade what you see, and don’t try to preempt anything.

 

Follow the money,

— Guy Cohen

 
   
 

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