Blackberry Ltd (BB) Trending Stock Report

It’s CPI day. Not only that, news and social media are booming with meme stock mentions. We have a highly speculative trade idea that plays off of the meme stock hype.

Blackberry Limited, (BB) rose 19.6% in the last two days. Which is not nearly as big as AMC’s 135% or Gamestop’s (GME) 179% over the same period. But that’s a good thing for our strategy. What moves up quickly can come back down just as fast. We want to take advantage of the meme stock frenzy, but we want to use an asset that maybe doesn’t react as fast as the biggest headline stocks in the meme stock group. We will also use a limited risk strategy to minimize our exposure if things don’t go our way.

That said, BB is still a meme stock and it can move very fast. So don’t go YOLO on this trade.

This MDM Graph compares the modeled expectations of current options prices (the orange line) to the actual distribution of stock prices over the last year (the blue histogram). You can see in the chart that BB did not move anything like the movement expected by modeled options prices. This graph tells us that current options prices for options expiring Friday are crazy expensive. That’s good news for option sellers.

This Volatility Cone compares implied volatility expectations (the yellow dots) to historical volatilities over the past year. For a quick explanation of the Volatility Cone, click here. You don’t normally see every dot above the extreme historical volatility, but that’s a meme stock for you. This graph confirms how ridiculously overpriced the options on BB are at every term.

The Volatility Term Structure shows that options expiring on Friday have the highest volatility expectations. For more info on how to use Volatility Term Structure, click here. When selling options we want to sell the shortest term with the most expensive options. That means we will focus on options expiring Friday.

BB options are extremely expensive relative to the stock’s historical movement. We can use a limited-risk, high-probability strategy to take advantage of the ridiculous pricing.

This is a highly speculative trade, and the high probability is not a 100% guarantee. So don’t go in as crazy as the people buying these options have been. Keep your allocations in line with your regular investments.

Be sure to read the ODDS Online Daily Trade Idea report to get the details of our trade idea for BB.

To access Odds Online Daily, click here.

Thank you,

Don Fishback

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