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Don Kaufman here. |
I'm looking at NVIDIA hitting $4 trillion this morning, and I mean, seriously - how the hell did that thing become a $4 trillion company? |
Let me put this in perspective for you, okay? Caterpillar is a $190 billion company. NVIDIA is literally 20 times bigger than Caterpillar. Think about that for a second. Caterpillar could go completely out of business tomorrow, and that would be like an average Tuesday for what NVIDIA's market cap moves in a single session. |
And here's what's really getting stupid - everyone's celebrating these new highs while I'm watching the market internals fall apart in real time. |
This morning I saw 67 decliners on the NASDAQ, but somehow it was making new highs because ten stocks were doing all the heavy lifting. |
You know what? |
If you're not looking at this marketplace and saying "okay, some things are starting to get a little stupid here," you're delusional at this point. |
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The Math That Should Terrify You |
Here's the thing nobody wants to talk about - we've got this insane concentration where literally ten companies can float the entire market for years. |
I mean, NVIDIA alone moves more in market cap on a random Wednesday than entire sectors are worth. |
The S&P can make new highs every single day with 400 stocks in the crapper, and you know why? |
Because of the weighting scheme. It's mathematical madness, but it works until it doesn't. |
And by the way, all these volatility studies everyone keeps throwing around? Never listen to that crap. |
There's no study that says when volatility's low, it means it's gonna go higher. There's nothing, okay? |
The VIX can stay compressed for months while this concentration game plays out. |
What I'm Actually Watching |
Right now, I'm seeing some pretty wild order flow that tells me this rotation is already starting. |
Tesla's got some stupid trades going through - somebody just put on a dollar wide spread, which is just throwing money away. But it tells me the smart money is positioning for something. |
I'll tell you what I'm watching - if we get a NASDAQ flush down 180 to 200 points, that's your rotation accelerator right there. |
That's when all this concentration unwinds fast, and suddenly everyone realizes they've been playing musical chairs with ten stocks. |
Silver's been consolidating around that $35 level, and when this tech concentration breaks, you're gonna see money flood into real assets so fast it'll make your head spin. |
The Setup Everyone's Missing |
AI already took over - where the hell have you been? It already happened. |
But now we're in this weird phase where everyone thinks they need to chase it at any price. |
It's Jack Ma 2.0, okay? |
Remember how that ended? |
The fact of the matter is, we've got bad breadth masquerading as a healthy market. When you can have the majority of stocks declining while indices hit new highs, that's not strength - that's mathematical trickery. |
What You Need to Do Right Now |
Watch for that NASDAQ 180-200 point flush. When it comes - and it will come - that's your signal that this concentration trade is finally breaking. Position for the rotation into sectors that have been left for dead while everyone chased the shiny AI object. |
And please, for the love of all that's holy, stop listening to volatility studies. |
The market doesn't care what happened in 1987 or 2008. It cares about what's happening right now, and right now we've got the most concentrated market in history pretending to be healthy. |
I mean, when Caterpillar's entire existence is a rounding error compared to NVIDIA's daily moves, maybe - just maybe - we should start asking some harder questions about where this all ends up. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. - Look, Garrett's Tesla 4-D thing ends today at 2:30 PM ET. After that? Done. Doors slam shut. |
I've been watching Tesla's order flow for years, and that stock is absolutely insane to trade if you don't know what you're doing. Most people trade it like it's some normal stock - it's not, okay? It moves like a crypto coin with Elon's Twitter account attached to it. |
Garrett's got this whole system figured out, and by the way, it's not terrible. Actually, it's pretty damn good. But after today? He's shutting this down for good. |
So if you've been throwing darts at Tesla instead of trading it properly, today's your day. Don't say I didn't warn you when you're watching 150% moves from the sidelines. |
Check it out here - clock's ticking. |
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