I Called This Market Fade

Don Kaufman here.

While everyone was celebrating EU trade deals and record highs this morning, I was watching 1,700 META calls move the market 1.3% and thinking: "This can't last."

By close, the S&P 500 had given up its entire gain and turned negative.

Here's the manipulation pattern that telegraphed the fade - and why recognizing it will save your ass.

The Red Flag That Everyone Missed

At market open, META is pumping on absolutely nothing. Yes, I know they have earnings this week, but still…

Just 1,700 calls driving a billion-dollar stock up 1.3%.

That number should terrify you.

In a healthy market, 1,700 contracts shouldn't move anything.

But with summer volume this thin, it's enough to drive the entire NASDAQ higher.

I'm watching real-time and telling traders in my room: "Look how little it takes to move a marketplace."

This isn't investing. This is algorithmic manipulation exploiting low liquidity.

META is set to report earnings Wednesday night…

How the Smart Money Plays You

Here's the playbook I watched unfold this morning:

Step 1: Find thin summer trading environment where volume can't absorb manipulation

Step 2: Buy enough calls in liquid name to trigger momentum algorithms (META's 1,700 contracts)

Step 3: Let the algos chase the move higher, creating artificial momentum

Step 4: Watch retail pile in chasing the "breakout" to new highs

Step 5: Dump positions into the retail buying and walk away

The firms executing this?

They're not building positions. They're exploiting technical inefficiencies for quick scalps.

As I told my room: "They lock in profits and flee the scene of the crime."

Why This Pattern Always Fails

The manipulation works for about 30 minutes. Then reality kicks in.

META's call buying drove early strength, but what sustained it? Nothing. The EU trade deal is just framework noise - all the major trade deals are already done.

Without real buying interest, these artificial moves collapse under their own weight. The smart money knows this. They're not trying to create lasting trends, just temporary price dislocations they can profit from.

What This Tells Us About Market Health

When such tiny options volume can move trillion-dollar stocks, you're not looking at efficient price discovery. You're looking at a system running on artificial life support.

The breadth behind today's move was garbage. Energy flat, financials fading, tech carrying everything on META call flows. That's not sustainable market leadership - that's manipulation masquerading as momentum.

Real bull markets don't need algorithmic trickery to maintain momentum. They have broad participation and sustained buying interest. What we got today was the opposite: narrow manipulation followed by the inevitable fade.

How to Position Against the Manipulation

Recognize the pattern: Low volume + relative tiny options flow in single names = artificial move that will reverse

Fade the manipulation: When you see morning pumps on thin volume, prepare for afternoon selling

Focus on what's real: Sector rotation, earnings growth, actual economic data - not headline noise about trade frameworks

The market handed us a perfect teaching moment today. Record highs on call manipulation lasting exactly until the smart money finished selling.

The Real Warning

This isn't just about today's trade. It's about a market structure that's increasingly dependent on manipulation rather than genuine investment flows.

When the only thing driving your bull market is options algorithms and retail FOMO, you're building on sand.

Eventually, the manipulation stops working and gravity reasserts itself.

I've been saying we're on borrowed time, and today proved why.

The patterns are getting more obvious, the manipulation more brazen, and the underlying foundation more fragile.

Of course, we'll know a lot more after this week is over, once we get earnings from the large tech players and the FOMC announcement.

Will the house of cards finally collapse?

To your success,

Don Kaufman

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